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WORLD DEVELOPMENT

     The uncertainty of winter has turned to war in Iraq with the opening of spring, while a mix of developments have been unfolding elsewhere. After an initial rapid advance toward Baghdad by U.S. and British forces, advance by the troops of the two countries has slowed in the face of more resistance by the Iraqis than many commentators anticipated. As the war continues, so the casualties mount among troops of both sides, and among Iraqi civilians.

    Bad as this is, it also increases the already high likelihood that Bush’s military action would increase the danger to the U.S. and Americans from terror, and support for it across and beyond the Middle East, rather than reducing it. The launching of the attack on Iraq by what in effect a “duolition” of U.S. and British forces (though other governments are lending some measure, of some kind, of support, some them, U.S. claims, anonymously because of strong opposition to the war in their nations!), without support from the UN Security Council, or General Assembly, and with clear indication that the U.S. could not put together the nine votes necessary to obtain Security Council approval (even if no one vetoed the measure), following upon the Bush administration’s unilateral approach to the world in rhetoric and action (or lack of it), has caused a huge number of people across the Middle East to view the dualition assault as a U.S. invasion. Even many Iraqis opposed to Saddam Husein have objected.

    There are reports from Jordan, and elsewhere, of thousands of Iraqis, and others, many previously opposed to Iraq’s, current leadership, rushing to Iraq to fight the “invaders”. Even one Iraqi Kurdish leader, bitterly in opposition to Saddam Husein, said of Bush, on hearing him give the Iraqi President 48 hours to leave his nation, “who does he think he is?” Even in traditionally moderate Mali, great anger is being expressed by citizens opposing the duolition attack on Iraq and the stationing of U.S. troops in their country to train their military.

    As the war has progressed, U.S. relations have worsened with Turkey, a formerly close ally and the only Muslim nation in NATO. Turkey’s parliament refused to allow U.S. troops to open a second from in Iraq from turkey, though the government did permit U.S. flyovers of its territory into Iraq. Now the U.S. is withdrawing military aircraft from bases in Turkey. The Arab Foreign Ministers agreed to ask the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq, on March 25, but did not concur on any other issue.

    The CIA reports that the U.S. war in Iraq is making it easier for al Queada to recruit operatives. Whether in collaboration with el Qeada, or acting independently, there have been a number of recent attacks on Western people and interests in the Middle East, such as the late March running down of American soldiers with a truck by an Egyptian in Kuwait.

    Meanwhile, The Middle East Economic Survey points out that a lack of investment in the region is continuing a weak economy in much of the Middle East, making it a breeding ground for new terrorists who will willingly fill the ranks of Al Qaeda’s next generation.(MEES, Feb. 10, 2003).

     Not only has the Bush administration seriously multiplied enmity against the U.S. around the Middle East, but, increasingly, the United States is being seen as a dangerous, rogue state by people in all parts of the world. Millions of people around the planet demonstrated against the U.S. proposal for military action in Iraq before it occurred (by one report 68 million people marched in opposition to the war from February 17-24 alone). Demonstrations have continued on a large scale in a great many nations since fighting began. When Time Europe asked readers, “which country poses the greatest danger to world peace in 2003?”,  687,000 replied, 88% of whom said the United States, while 6.4% indicated North Korea, and 5.6% Iraq.

    If the U.S. government does not change its approach (and Bush his rhetoric), there is a possibility that much of the rest of the world would band together to contain the U.S. Such an occurrence would likely encourage more terrorist acts, while undermining the cooperation necessary to prevent them.

     There is also a positive aspect of the Iraqi war situation. Dr. Robert Muller, former assistant secretary general of the United Nations, now Chancellor emeritus of the University of Peace in Costa Rica, recently commented, “ I'm so moved by what's going on in our world today…. Never before in the history of the world has there been a global, visible, public, viable, open dialogue and conversation about the very legitimacy of war. The whole world is in now having this critical and historic dialogue--listening to all kinds of points of view and positions about going to war or not going to war. In a huge global public conversation the world is asking-"Is war legitimate? Is it illegitimate? Is there enough evidence to warrant an attack? Is there not enough evidence to warrant an attack? What will be the consequences? The costs? What will happen after a war? How will this set off other conflicts? What might be peaceful alternatives? What kind of negotiations are we not thinking of? What are the real intentions for declaring war?"

     In addition, the U.S.is not acting totally unilaterally. Realizing that cost of post-war administration and reconstruction of Iraq will be immense, perhaps $1.4 billion a month according to Congressional Budget Office Estimates, the United States does not want to bear the entire cost itself, and thus has already asked for and received a UN Security Council Resolution to restart the UN operated Iraqi Oil for Food program. Many of us hope that in the face of the huge costs of being unilateral, the U.S. will learn from its errors and adopt a truly multilateral approach to world issues. However, this is not yet occurring.

    All over the world, governments and civil society groups are proposing to take the US-led attack on Iraq to the UN General Assembly under a procedure known as "Uniting for Peace." The U.S. was so alarmed, that it sent not particularly diplomatic letters to all countries demanding that they avoid calls for an emergency session of the General Assembly. Moreover, the U.S. currently intends to have a brief occupation headed by a U.S. general (which may reinforce the perception that the Iraq war and the aftermath is U.S. imperialism) with the UN being asked to play a narrow roll as a subcontractor to assist with undertaking and financing reconstruction.

     One positive note is that, according to the Center for Defense Information (CDI), the number of wars involving at least 1000 casualties being fought in the world dropped from 38 to 30 from January 1, 2002 to January 1, 2003 (see The Defense Monitor, January/February 2003 for details).  All of these are at least mentioned in this column.

     The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reports that two Pakistani scientists passed important nuclear secrets to members of Al Qaeda in 2000, with the goal of sharing the secrets of the atomic bomb with the world’s Muslim community (David Albright and Holly Higgins in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March-April 2003), while the same issue reports that the Dr. A.Q. Khan Research Laboratories in Rawalpindi, Pakistan offers a select clientele equipment and technical expertise spun off from the Pakistani gas centrifuge program that made possible Pakistan’s enrichment of uranium for nuclear weapons. In Iraq, a coalition victory may not prevent any Iraqi weapons of mass destruction from falling into the hands of al Qeada or other terrorists, as the once tightly controlled weapons may be recovered by militants or profiteers, or proliferated by former military personnel. Similarly, Iraqi scientists may also go elsewhere to contribute to proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

    The International Atomic Energy Commission reports that at the end of 2002, Iran purchased a quantity of UF6, a gas used to enrich weapons grade uranium, from China. How soon Iran may acquire its first nuclear weapon is a matter of speculation.

     The U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction Program has spent $1 billion a year for ten years to denuclearize Kazakhstan, Belarus and the Ukraine, dismantling some 6,000 nuclear weapons. Still, at least 20,000 warheads are still stockpiled at 123 sites, and 40,000 tons of chemical warfare weapons are left. The collapse of the Soviet Union has created surplus of cheap supplies, and the new vogue for terrorism is fast creating a market. The Center for International and Strategic Studies has published a 4-volume "action agenda" for countering the threat (Available on-line as pdf files).

     In Afghanistan, attacks on U.S. troops by opponents of the new regime have increased since the Iraq war began, while the capitol of Kabul remains violent and security has not been provided in the rest of the country. U.S. forces launched one new assault on suspected al Qeada positions at the opening of the Iraq war and may send out task forces on additional forays. Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country’s laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed on to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed immunity. So far, little has been accomplished by a judicial commission created under the Bonn Agreement, signed in December 2001, that re-established Afghanistan’s 1964 Constitution and laid out a plan to rebuild the legal system. In mid-March, the first of about 600.000 Afghani refugees expected to go home this year from Pakistan began to make their return journey. At the same time, the World Bank announced its first loan to Afghanistan in over 20 years, $108 million for road and bridge repair. The Afghan government says that considerably more aid is needed to rebuild the country and begin meaningful development.

The Israeli-Palestinian situation is even worse. Since easily winning reelection and forming a coalition government without the Labor Party, Israeli Prime Minister Sharon has been even tougher in repression of the Palestinians, as Israeli security forces continue to make incursions into Palestinian areas, arresting and assassinating suspected terrorists, and bulldozing their family’s houses at an increased rate. Some Palestinians have been killed in the bulldozings.  As, in March, American citizen, Rachel Corey, was the first member of the International Solidarity Movement to be killed in the occupied territories. She was run over by a bulldozer when she tried to prevent it from demolishing a Palestinian home. The presence of foreign observers has tended to lesson the vehemence of Israeli security operations. Israel has expelled many of them and often blocks their entrance into Israel and the occupied lands. While the number of suicide bombings have been reduced over the past months, violence continues, bringing injuries and deaths to both sides, but much more heavily among the Palestinians.

    Because of Israeli security measures, Palestinian unemployment is now 50% with 60% of the population living in poverty and 22% of children suffering from acute chronic malnutrition. Following the killing of one of its leaders by Israeli security forces, Hamas said that it would begin targeting Israeli political leaders. A number of statements by Israeli military personnel give indication of possible negligence or intentional violation of civil rights by the Israeli Army. For example, Gush Shalom reports that on the evening news of Channel-10 television of Tuesday, March 4, during an extensive report about the army operation in the Old City of Nablus, a soldier stated, "Our task here is to find the wanted terrorists and kill them." Israel continues to build a wall to separate its population from Palestinians, often taking Palestinian land without compensation, particularly when extending the wall into Palestinian areas to include Jewish settlements, U.N. Human rights experts say this is a violation of international law. In January, Palestinian representatives, blocked from traveling by the Israelis following a suicide bombing, participated by internet in a British sponsored Middle East Peace conference in London. Although the U.S briefly announced a new peace initiative just before beginning the Iraq war, so far there has been little energy in it, and diplomacy seems to have made little progress in the Palestinian/Israeli situation for a considerable time. In December, the U.S. vetoed a UN Security Council resolution criticizing Israel for a series of attacks against UN workers and facilities in the occupied territories. In March, the Palestinian Parliament created an office of Prime Minister, given power to form a cabinet of ministers and supervise their work, while the President, Arafat, will retain authority to negotiate with the Israelis and command security forces. This is one of the reforms of the Palestinian Authority sought by the U.S. The first Prime Minister is Mahmoud Abbas, a moderate who has opposed attacks on Israelis. Israel is adding two submarines, to be made in Germany, to its fleet. Some speculate that this is in preparation for possible nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, allowing Israel to place nuclear weapons on a number of submarines in order to insure survival of nuclear capability if it is attacked.

     At least until the beginning of the Iraq war, when it was cut off from cheap oil from its Eastern neighbor, Jordan appears to be enjoying a “peace dividend” (as reported by David Makovsky in the Los Angeles Times, 1/13/03) from its settlement with Israel and accompanying U.S. trade benefits, that has been producing significant political and economic benefits. Over the last five year’s, Jordan’s exports to the U.S. have risen from $5 million to about $400 million a year, the labor market has expanded, with 30,000 new jobs being created in1992, along with a 4.9% economic growth.

    A referendum in Chechnya, which continues to suffer from battling between separatists and repressive Russian troops, passed by a large margin, calling for Chechnya to be an autonomous republic in Russia. This is the first attempt at a political settlement that many Russians and Chechens hope will lead to an ending, or at least a great reduction, of the fighting. In Tajikistan, five years after the civil war ended, Tajikistan is a safer place, yet, with a drug-dependent economy and undemocratic leadership, it continues to suffer many problems.

     North Korea has steadily escalated its crises with the U.S., the region and the world by repeatedly taking steps to increase its ability to produce nuclear weapons, eliminating UN nuclear inspection, testing a number of new missiles, and making some provocative military moves, such as flying fighters very close to a U.S, reconnaissance plane in international air space, while the U.S. simply calls for diplomatic settlement with the help of Asian nations, while refusing North Korea’s request for direct talks. Thus, the situation has become steadily more serious to the point where North Korea likely will soon have a number of nuclear war heads, which it may begin selling, possibly including to terrorists.

    Many critics of the Bush administration (including this writer), believe that the crises was begun by the Bush administration’s discontinuation of slowly developing and promising talks with North Korea, followed by the U.S. president’s inflammatory remarks about North Korea and its president, and Bush’s strong unilateral push to bring about regime change in Iraq. There is a good possibility that these actions upset a paranoid North Korean regime into believing that the U.S. was seriously considering attacking it, and that it took provocative action to try to get the U.S. to change course, assuring North Korea that an attack would not be made and reaching an accommodation that would be financially helpful to the impoverished dictatorship, while taking steps to increase its security in the hopes of deterring the U.S. The Bush Administration does not want to reward North Korea’s violations of agreements and threatening actions by negotiating with it. But many commentators believe that it ought to be possible for the U.S. to have talks with North Korea to clarify the situation and positions, in order to set up a situation in which meaningful negotiations can take place.

    If the U.S. waits to begin a communications process until North Korea is producing numerous nuclear weapons, it may well be too late to negotiate the change the U.S. wishes, and the world may be considerably more dangerous than it now is, including finding Japan and other Asian nations rushing to produce their own nuclear weapons. The U.S. has moved some forces to the Pacific and held joint military maneuvers with South Korea.

    Meanwhile, in February, a convoy of busses carried 100 South Koreans to North Korea, opening the first road link across the demilitarized zone between the two nations in 50 years. In January, the two Koreas agreed to settle the stand off over North Korea’s nuclear program peacefully, but without any compromise by North Korea on substantive issues. On March 22, North Korea stated that it was postponing its next talks with South Korea, criticizing its southern neighbor for beefing up defenses after the start of the Iraq ground war.

     In India, Muslim’s have been suffering from increasing Hindu religious fanaticism, while in Indian Kashmir, the recent massacre of Hindu resident’s of a village by separatists threatens to become a pattern, and is causing many Hindu’s to flee the Muslim majority province. In early March, separatist rebels seeking a Naga tribal state fired mortars at an oil refinery in northeastern India, causing a major fire. Several other armed groups operate as rebels or as criminal gangs in India. In January, India expelled four Pakistani officials, indicating continuing bad relations between the two nations, particularly over Kashmir.

    Violence continued in Pakistan, including attacks on Americans and other westerners, and an assault on a Shiite Muslim Mosque in which nine died. There have been extensive anti U.S. war in Iraq demonstrations around the country. While there is no immediate sign that the military government will collapse, there are concerns that if the situation deteriorated sufficiently, a radical Muslim regime could come to power with access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

    Mass demonstrations against the U.S. have also been taking place throughout the Middle East, with even “moderate” governments, such as that of Egypt, openly permitting or to some degree orchestrating them, so that energy is mostly channeled at the U.S., and not a the government (with Pakistan an exception). In Nepal, the seven year old civil war between the government and Maoist guerillas continues, with 5000 killed in the last 14 months. The rebels have offered peace talks, but the government is wary. Elections were canceled in the fall because of the violence and the elected government was replaced by an appointed one, as a state of emergency was reimposed.

    While there have been some settlements of wars between the government and ethnic groups on some islands, Indonesia remains in conflict with Christian and Muslim groups on Sulawasi Island. The People’s Republic of China continues to be in sometimes violent conflict with the Ulghur East Turkestan Independence Movement In January, thousands of protestors demonstrated against an ending of subsidies on fuel, telephones and electricity, as part of the economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund to help balance Indonesia’s budget. After two weeks of public pressure, the government rescinded some increases and delayed others. The protests diminished, but continued, complaining of the Megawati Sukamputrii government’s economic policies influenced the IMF and World Bank policies. With elections coming in 2004, Indonesia may join much of Latin America in moving away from neoliberal economics. A UN human rights official suspended his fact finding mission to Myanmar (Burma) after finding an eavesdropping device in the room in which he was interviewing political prisoners.

    The U.S. Department of State annual report on International Religious Freedom, released in October, found that “the level of religious repression in Tibet remained high, and the government’s record of respect for religious freedom remained poor.” The European Parliament Conference on Tibet, in November, urged the Council and Commission of the European Union to appoint A Special Representative on Tibet to promote earnest negotiations to resolve the Tibet issue with China. In an October meeting with Chinese President Jaing Zemin, President Bush urged China to pursue more dialogue on Tibet. Eight Tibetans are now members of the three main bodies of the Communist Party of China.

     In the Philippines about 2900 U.S. marines and special forces troops are now assisting with military training and engaged in limited combat roles with Philippine troops fighting guerillas. The long inactive communist guerilla organization has recently been reborn. In early March, a terrorist bombing at a Southern Philippines airport killed 21 people and injured 145, followed by a second bombing in early April.

     In Northern Ireland, British led negotiations are continuing in hopes of restarting the Assembly that was suspended in October after allegations that the IRA was spying on the government. Former first minister Trimble of the Protestant Ulster Unionist Party, who was unopposed in being reelected head of his party, said that he would only agree to a renewed government with Sinn Fein if the IRA stated that the war was over, undertook visible decommissioning and ended all paramilitary activities. Police found and confiscated a stock of arms belonging to an IRA related group in March. The Unionists also support proposals for sanctions against any party in a renewed executive that violates any of the agreements. The IRA objects to this as a policy aimed only at one party. On the other points, the IRA argues that it has done some decommissioning secretly, confirmed by neutral international monitors, and that decommissioning is a complex process involving both Catholic and Protestant militias, requiting a negotiated disarmament and disbandment on all sides. Trimble and Sinn Fein President, Gerry Adams, have met for some direct talks. But a breakthrough has not yet occurred. SDLP leader Mark Durkan has said that, particularly in the debate about sanctions, there is a danger of parties trying to undo the progress that was made in their talks by focusing on placing blame, where what is needed is a win-win approach. The English and Irish prime ministers have continued to talk with each other and with the parties. Assembly elections scheduled for 1 May have been postponed until May 29 to allow time for more negotiations. The British government has committed to, and some progress has been made toward, reform of the police, in part by decentralizing control of policing and justice from Belfast to local jurisdictions.

     Yugoslavia is now reformed into Serbia-Montenegro, under an arrangement brokered by the European Union, with each republic completely autonomous and only defense and foreign affairs carried out by a small joint administration. The republics will be able to vote on total independence in 2006.

    In Kososvo, on February 25, 300 Kosovo Serbian delegates met in Mitrovica, where, in the face of warnings from then international community, they established their own Parliament of Serbian Districts and District Units of Kosovo and Metohija. The meeting resolved that the new Union of Serbian Districts and District Units of Kosovo and Metohija--also known as the Serbian Union--would exist as an integral part of Serbia, They also approved a declaration endorsing the “sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia and the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro.” The Kosovar Serb politicians said that their meeting was in response to Kosovar Albanian politicians’ recent demands for independence for Kosovo. But ethnic Albanian politicians claimed the latest attempts at declaring independence came in reaction to recently proclaimed Constitutional Charter of Serbia and Montenegro that lists Kosovo as a part of Serbia--a notion Kosovar Albanians refuse to accept. Michael Steiner, the head of the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), on 26 February insisted that Serbian politicians in Kosovo back down from their plans to upset the fragile peace process, saying that the plans to partition Kosovo have no legal basis. While some Serbian politicians in Belgrade have been calling for the return of Serbian forces to Kosovo, and a particion of the province into Serbian and Albanian areas.

    Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica and many other high-ranking officials in Belgrade have spoken out against partitioning. Kostunica’s DSS criticized the declaration as hurried, saying it could serve as an excuse for the ethnic Albanian side to make radical moves. In Serbia-Montenegro, Prime Minister Zoran Djindic was assassinated, in March, by two alleged organized crime hit persons, who have been arrested. Former Yugoslav President Milosevic is considered by many to continue to be major crime leader in confinement in Prison, and many view the assassination as a victory for organized crime in Serbia, which has been a major problem in the Republic.

    In Macedonia, the NATO peacekeeping operation has been turned over to the European Community. In March, a panel of Bosnian and international judges ordered the Bosnian Serb Republic to pay $2 million in compensation for the massacre of 7500 Muslims at Srebrenica in 1995. The money will be used for a memorial where families of the victims plan to bury the remains of their relatives when they are identified.

     In Russia, where, control of the media has increasingly been taken over by the government, President Putin, in March, expanded the powers of the security service to include jurisdiction over border guards and government communications, giving the service almost as much authority as that of the old KGB. The Catalan moderate nationalist Convergency and Unity Coalition, in Spain, in March proposed turning that nation’s northeastern region of Catalonia into a sovereign state associated with Madrid, following a similar proposal by the Basques in September, that the Basque parliament will debate by the end of the year.

     In Nigeria, ethnic conflict has expanded, with Shell Chevron-Texico and the French Oil Company TotalFinaElf shutting down production in the western delta, considerably reducing Nigerian oil exports and revenues, and possibly precipitating a political crises, because of intertribal conflict between the Itsekiri and Ijawa, who are leading a campaign for a greater share of Nigerian oil wealth. Virtually all money paid to Nigeria by multinational oil firms goes to political leaders in the nations capital, with little returning to local people. In the Spring of 2000, Texico, concerned about preventing interruption of its operation and bad publicity, was planning to do some local economic development (See the Fall 2000 issue of Nonviolent Change), but this publication does not know what has come of that plan. The situation in the Ivory Coast has become more complicated with the arising of two new guerilla groups. With the aid of the French, whose forces were stationed in the country, the government agreed, in January, to a settlement with the original insurgent group, forming a coalition government of reconciliation (in spite of popular resistance to including the opposition in the government, which for a time brought rioting in the capitol).

    A proposal has been made by the governments of Mali and Togo to have a force of 2,500 peacekeeping troops from the Economic community of West African States replace the French forces helping to stabilize the Ivory Coast, but to date, no troops have been provided. Just as peace was coming to Sierra Leon at the beginning of 2002, the civil war in neighboring Liberia erupted again and is continuing.

    Recent progress toward peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is being undermined by continued fighting in the eastern province of Kivu, where ethnic tensions first erupted. Each of the factions involved is seeking to reshape the province for its own purposes. The continued violence relates to the fact that not all of the guerilla groups involved were parties to the accord reached in December in South Africa between the CDR government and rebel groups. The Central African Republic, which has experienced a number of military coups in the last few years, in mid-March, saw rebel forces capture its capital, with its leader taking power and dissolving the legislature.

    In Uganda, Human Rights Watch reports that the rebel group, the Lord’s Resistance Army, has increased its abducting of Children, taking 5,000 since June, and 20,000 over the last 16 years, to be soldiers, sex slaves and laborers. In late March the Army killed a peace envoy from the government, which continues to attempt to initiate negotiations toward an ending of hostilities.

    Two small guerilla groups signed a peace accord with the government of Burundi in September, and the largest insurgent force, the larger Forces for the Defense of Democracy followed by agreeing to a cease fire, in December, in preparation for joining in a “unity” government, with the army, currently dominated by the Tutsi minority, reorganized to provide parity between Tutsis and Hutus. However, the mainstream National Liberation Forces continues to hold out.

    The government of Rwanda, in March, freed more than 20,000 genocide suspects (from the 1994 slaughter of half a million people, mostly Tutsis) and former rebels, who were not leaders and who have admitted guilt. About 20,000 more of the 115,000 detained genocide suspects are expected to be released, relieving prison overcrowding. Those being released will first spend about two months in camps learning about civics, national reconciliation, land ownership and other problems that have developed during their extended absence. The Rwandan genocide tribunal, formed in 1994, has been proceeding extremely slowly, having convicted only 10 people as of February.

    Reports from Sudan indicate that the government has been attempting to forcibly assimilate the Nubian population, giving some of its land to other ethnic groups, and separating related Nubian populations through relocation away from their traditional land. This is a continuation of the relocation that began with the building of the Aswan high dam in the 1960’s (For more information contact sidahmed@EMIRATES.NET.AE).

    In Zimbabwe, forces loyal to President Robert Mugabe were hunting down opponents who called a two day strike in protest of government instigated seizures of white owned farms, in late March, beating their opponents with iron bars and whips, sending 250 people to the hospital, one of whom died. Two opposition law makers and 260 other persons were arrested.

    In South Africa, activists have been carrying out a campaign to try to force the government to provide drugs for AIDS patients. In Algeria, the civil (or rather uncivil) war between the government and the Armed Islamic Group continues. The South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission completed its work in March, urging the government not to issue blanket pardons for perpetrators of crimes during apartheid, and encouraged business to join with government in delivering reparations to millions of blacks victimized by the former minority white government.

    In Kenya, Mwai Kibaki won election over the hand picked candidate of the former President, which appears a victory for democracy. But some commentators believe that in Kenya, and many sub-Saharan African countries, corruption is so deeply imbedded, and the candidates are generally members of the same elite class, that democracy may be more apparent than real (See Gregg Zach, “Dictating Democracy: In Kenya a change in leaders may not be all it seems,” In These Times. February 17, 2003).

     All over Latin America, economic decline, following a decade of neoliberal economic policies, is bringing great pressure on ruling classes, almost entirely of European descent, as new political parties are forming with many rising leaders from indigenous peoples and other previously excluded classes in a shifting political landscape. The new directions in public, and particularly economic, policy are not entirely clear, and vary by country, but the move is toward a return to more state participation in the economy with protection of some secondary economies. Venezuela’s armed forces have exchanged fire with Columbian Paramilitary forces operating in their country and bombed a zone close to the Columbian boarder, in what President Hugo Chavez says is a warning to Columbian paramilitaries that have “invaded Venezuelan territory” along the 1370 mile boarder between the two countries.

    In Venezuela, the attempt to remove President Hugo Chavez under pressure of a general strike, which for a time stopped oil production and disrupted the economy, fell apart in February. Several of the strike leaders are now wanted for treason, including Venezuelan Labor confederation leader, Carlos Ortega, who was allowed safe passage from the Costa Rican embassy to the airport to fly to asylum in Cost Rica.

    War continues among the government, guerilla groups and paramilitary forces in Columbia, including bombings, as the government seeks to regain control of territory from guerrilla groups with increased military aid from the U.S. ($537 million for 2003). The U.S is training new Columbian army brigades, one of whose functions will be to protect oil pipelines of the Los Angeles based Occidental Petroleum. The U.S. has also resumed large scale spraying to destroy cocoa crops, which is quite harmful to local residents and the environment. Intensification of the war by the government is encouraging guerrilla forces to operate outside of Columbia. There are reports of armed members of the FARC being seen in Brazil, Peru and Venezuela. Latin America’s other war continues at a low level in Peru, between the government and the Sindero Luminoso.

    Brazil’s new President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, proposed a constitutional amendment that would empower the government to seize the land of ranchers caught using debt slaves. It is reported that as many as 25,000 people are subject to debt slavery in the Brazilian states of Para, Tocantins and Marahao.

    In Bolivia, violent protests took place across the country in February, with at least 20 dead, and the presidential palace protected by tanks, as citizens unhappy about the economy and angry at a new income tax demanded that President Sanchez de Lozada resign.

    In Mexico, in March, protestors claiming that they had seceded from the rest of Mexico State (having successfully blocked construction of a new airport for nearby Mexico City, last year) demolished voting booths and scuffled with authorities in San Salvador Atencio, preventing voting in municipal elections. Local elections proceeded normally in the rest of the state. In four months Mexico will hold congressional election. Amnesty International reports “sexism, corporate Greed and drug trafficking make Juarez a deadly town for Mexico’s women,” with at least 300 murdered and no one arrested because of “indifference, incompetence, corruption (Amnesty Now, Spring 2003).” In March, Amnesty International reported that justice system reforms in Mexico had not yet put an end to beatings and other violent coercive methods to obtain confessions, particularly in the southern state of Oaxaca, where guerilla groups are active, and in Ciudad Juarez, across the boarder from El Paso, TX. In Guatemala, judges and lawyers involved in prosecution of human rights violators continue to be in danger, with 130 having been sent death threats over the last few years and several killed. In December, two unidentified men shot at Attorney General Carlos de Leon Argueta as he drove home, likely in retaliation for his high profile criminal investigations.

    The world’s first public health treaty, the international Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), scheduled to be adopted in May despite U.S. opposition to many of its measures: total ban on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship, liability and compensation for harms caused by tobacco, prioritizing public health over trade, and protecting public health from tobacco industry interference. The International Criminal Court began operation in the Hague in March, without the participation of the U.S., following President Bus’s withdrawal from it.

     The United Nations released. in December. a list of 23 nations and groups using children in war, including factions linked to the Northern Alliance and the Taliban in Afghanistan, the government and nine contending factions in the Congo, the government and one faction in Liberia, the government and several factions in Somalia, the Lord’s Army in Uganda, leftist guerillas and rightist paramilitary forces in Columbia and Chechen rebels. UNICEF announced in February that tens of millions of poor urban children around the world live in life threatening environments, where child mortality rates are as high as 100 to 200 per 1000 live berths, where anemia is high and where only a portion, if any, poor children are vaccinated, and where they risk violence and exploitation.

    Urbanization has reached the point where 1 billion children, almost half the world’s young people, live in cities, with 80% in Asia, Africa and Latin America, where their numbers are growing rapidly. The U.N. food and Agricultural Organization (UNFAO) reported that 47% of the worlds capture fisheries are being exploited at or near maximum and cannot expand, as many are already over fished and threatened by environmental degradation. Meanwhile, aquaculture, the farming and stocking of aquatic organisms, including fish, mollusks, crustaceans, and aquatic plants, is growing rapidly, so that by weight, aquaculture has grown from 3.9% of the worlds aquatic animal production in 1970 to 27% in 2000 (or 9.2% a year) while animal food production has increased by only 2.8% a year.

     Many thousands of square miles of rain forest in Brazil’s Amazon Basin have been consumed by more than 700 fires as the result of dry conditions and high winds. Wild fires continue to be a serious problem in Australia. A number of Pacific Island nations are discussing using Japanese technology that exploits differences in temperature in sea water at different depths to produce electricity and desalinate sea water in a renewable process.

    In the U.S., the Environmental Protection Agency reported in early March that the number of children in the country with elevated levels of lead in their blood is down from 4.7 million in 1978 to 300,00 in 2000, following the phase out of led in gasoline and reduction in the number of homes with lead paint. The number of children showing effects from second hand smoke declined by 20% to 50% from 1988 to 2000. However, the number of children with asthma rose from 3.6% in 1980 to 8.7% in 2000. No cause has been identified for the increase, though a number of environmental factors are being studied.

    AIDS continues infect and lead to the deaths of huge numbers of people in sub-Saharan Africa, creating ever larger societal disruption, while it also continues to be a very serious and growing problem in Russia and many places in Asia.

    A possible new major disease threat is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which began in China last fall and has killed more than 100 people world wide. The disease, that appears to be related to the common cold and spreads from fluids, including saliva which may become air born for a limited distance, particularly from coughing. It currently kills close to 4% of those who come down with symptoms. If SARS is not contained, and spreads widely, while keeping its current virulence, huge numbers of people could die from it around the world.

     In March, the U.S. Senate unanimously approved the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty with Russia, reducing the number of strategic nuclear weapons ready for use to between 1700 and 2200 for each nation (but allowing additional warheads to be stored) by 2012, but providing no interim timetable for decommissioning.  According to the Center for Defense Information, total Pentagon spending in FYí04 is expected to be around $380 billion, roughly four percent above current levels. Questions are being raised by activist and scientists as to whether U.S. chemical stockpiles, biological research and new secret programs violate the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention. There are claims being made that the reason the U.S. recently opposed putting teeth into enforcing that convention is to protect its own programs. Some critics are calling for weapons inspections in the U.S. (See Fride Berrigan, “Inspect This”, In These Times, March3, 2003).

     On February 3, 2003, National Public Radio ran a news story, "Activism as a Profession," reporting that an increasing numbers of college-age people are thinking about making their careers in the growing field of public interest advocacy and grassroots organizing.

    In August, members of the Earth Liberation Front (ELF), which previously had a policy of limiting violence to damaging property, for the first time stated in a press release, accompanying their burning down a Forrest Service research station in Pennsylvania, that at least some of their membership no longer felt so constrained.

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