WORLD DEVELOPMENTS

(Brief report, see spring and fall issues for more detailed discussion)

         Steve Sachs

     As 2005 opens, the world's energy is very much in turmoil, both in the physical and human realms. There is much danger, but also considerable opportunity real progress, if people will center themselves and support one another. The tsunami that inflicted unprecedented injury (in human terms, the 1880's Krakatoa volcanic explosion and tidal wave was several times larger), but has produced significant opportunities for collaboration (as mentioned in Ingrid Sato's letter, below ). In December,   according to January's Crisis Watch bulletin,   violence surged in Iraq, and fighting between Maoists and the military escalated across Nepal . The situations in Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe also worsened. In Sudan , the long-awaited signing on 31 December in Naivasha of a final peace accord between the government and Southern SPLA rebels was offset by deteriorating security in Darfur, as the Somali government has continued to support militias in an ethnic cleansing of the region.

     Marc Sageman, a forensic psychiatrist, who worked as a CIA case officer in Afghanistan in the late 1980s, who now writes for the Foreign Policy Research Institute, stated in November that he believes that al Qaeda leadership has shifted, becoming far more aggressive, and less reasonable in its operations . But it is also clear that al Qaeda operates much more as semi or fully independent units operating relatively locally, and often inspiring or allying with likeminded groups and individuals.

     With elections approaching, Iraq is becoming increasingly more violent, with even more assassinations, bombings and shootings. Just how meaningful the elections will be is in question. Moreover, high levels of violence are likely to continue after them. In its October report, the International Crisis Group finds that a major mistake in Iraq was the decision of the coalition authority to concentrate almost exclusively on a national transitional administration while failing to establish credible local authorities , which are the necessary basis of an effective national regime. While the insurgency is now fragmenting into various competing small groups, the U.S. appointed power in Baghdad is largely blind when it comes to countering the threat .

Anthony Cordesman states( CSIS , December 22, 2004) that as violence increases and casualties mount, particularly among Iraqis, it has become obvious that major policy errors were committed by U.S. military planners who deluded themselves and refused to recognize the unfolding reality of what was actually happening.

 "The U.S. minimized the insurgent and criminal threat and exaggerated the popular support for US    and Coalition efforts. Polls as early as the summer of 2003 showed that at least one-third of Arab Sunnis while over 15% of Shi'ites supported attacks on Coalition forces. The numbers may now be substantially higher. The US assumed for the first year after the fall of Saddam Hussein that it was dealing with a limited number of insurgents that Coalition forces would defeat well before the election. It did not see the threat level that would emerge if it did not provide jobs or pensions for Iraqi career officers, or co-opt them into the nation building effort. It was slow to see that some form of transition payments were necessary for the young Iraqi soldiers that faced massive, nation-wide unemployment. As late as the spring of 2004, the U.S. still failed to acknowledge the true scale of the insurgent threat and the extent to which popular resentment of Coalition forces would rise if it did not act immediately to   rebuild a convincing mix of Iraqi military and security forces...."

While Pentagon spokesman stated that the insurgents in Iraq number 7,000-25,000, an Iraqi intelligence officer made the more credible (to this writer) estimate that the insurgents number about 40,000, plus some 200,0000 part time fighters, with the number of full and part time insurgents increasing in reaction to U.S. military action.

     The U.S. blunders in Iraq, and more broadly on foreign policy in general, but most particularly in the Middle East, during the Bush administration, are making the world more violent and insecure. It is now, and for some time will remain, far more difficult for the U.S. to make positive gains in the Middle East, even if it quickly shifts to an extremely enlightened set of policies . Rand Corporation says that the U.S. needs to take action to avoid making the Middle East, and the world, even more turbulent. It reports that the U.S. needs to avoid the trap of polarizing the Muslim world into an extremist opposition by learning to tell the difference between extremists and moderates and help the latter. (RAND , December 15, 2004, contains a detailed analysis of recent developments). The caveat to this is (at least for this commentator), that working to support "moderates" needs to be done openly and democratically. The U.S. is already blamed for helping keep unpopular autocratic regimes in power across the Middle East, that the White house may consider "moderate", or pro-western, but which are hardly moderate in the eyes of much of the population. Shoring up unpopular and autocratic regimes produces instability and, often violent, turmoil in the long run.
top

      Hamed Karzai has been elected President of Afghanistan . Ethnic divisions will make the job of integrating and developing the country difficult , even though he is a member of the largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns, and had more appeal in ethnic groups other than his own than any other candidate. Some noteworthy progress may be taking place, as some Taliban commanders said in October they would be ready to come to settle with Karzai, once he became confirmed as president . (Jeremy Bransten, Eurasianet.org, October 23, 2004)

     The International Crisis Group reports that Armenia can expect increased political instability, with half its population below the poverty line, and few hopes for economic development. Corruption and government inefficiency are compounding the difficulties ( ICG , October 18, 2004). A portion of Armenia's economic troubles stem from isolation due to its war with Azerbaijan. The situation is now being made worse by Russia's disaffection with Georgia, which has led to a severing of Armenia's main trade route to Russian markets, through Georgia (even though Armenia is Russia's most important ally in the Caucuses).

     Iran has moved closer to gaining a strategic foothold in Caucasian energy markets with the start of work on a gas pipeline to Armenia . The project has the potential to undercut Russia's control of Armenia's energy supply. However, this is likely to be prevented or ameliorated by recent developments. Armenia has announced plans to increase orders for Russian gas, while the Russian company Gazprom is negotiating a role in the construction of the Armenian portion of the Iranian pipeline project.

     More than 2, 000 anti-war protesters demonstrated in Moscow over a late October weekend to demand an end to the war in Chechnya, which has become a catalyst for protesting Putin's policies. After talks with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in Hamburg, in December, Putin said Moscow had carefully analyzed Germany's proposals for European Union participation in negotiations to settle the conflict, and stated, "We accept these proposals ,"

top

     South Korea 's President Roh Moo-hyun, who seeks reconciliation with North Korea, takes a much more conciliatory position on his neighbor's nuclear weapons development than does the U.S. In November, Roh stated in an address to the World Affairs Council in Los Angeles that the central argument underpinning North Korea's nuclear-weapons program - that it is a necessary defense in the face of hostility and threat - is not entirely illogical.

Willy Lam commented in the Jamestown Foundation's October 28 China Briefs that Beijing has nearly stopped trying to pressure North Korea into moderating its plans to speed up a nuclear weapons program. Lam detects in recent statements that China is convinced that the U.S., Japan and Taiwan are now committed to trying to contain China from further expansion in the region.

Even without that, China likely has mixed feelings about a reconciliation of the two Koreas, that might follow nuclear disarmament, as that would likely place a capitalist state directly on its boarder. At the same time, an isolated North Korea is likely to collapse, bringing an unwanted mass flow of refugees into China, following which, North-South integration might well take place in Korea.

     In December, Thailand signaled its wish to have peace with its Muslim minority by having 54 military aircraft drop more than 100 million paper cranes over the country's troubled southern provinces .

     The Palestinian-Israeli situation has taken on a new gestalt since the death of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, in December. In January Palestinians promoted Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to President of the Palestinian authority by a substantial margin, with some 70% of eligible voters participating.

    Abbas has called the armed uprising a mistake, and calls for it to end, while asserting the right of return for all Palestinians and stating his willingness to negotiate a just settlement with Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime minister Ariel Sharon has formed a national unity government with the Labor Party joining the coalition lead by his Liqud Party, to go forward with his plan for unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

     Sharon has stated that he looks forward to negotiating with Abbas, and plans to release 7000 Palestinian prisoners if Abbbas can end the firing of rockets by militant Palestinians at Israeli boarder towns. Some Israeli settlers in the Gaza strip say that they will resist removal, but the members of one Gaza settlement have come to agreement with the government on the terms of resettlement.

      The Bush administration has stated that it sees the current situation as positive for moving ahead with peace negotiations and says that it intends to play an active facilitation role in them. At the same time, Israeli defense forces continue to make incursions and attacks in Gaza, destroying houses and killing from three to ten Palestinians every 24 hours while injuring many others. In addition, Palestinians charge that right wing settlers are targeting Arab children on their way to school, while western reporters look the other way.

     top

The Ukraine has undergone a nonviolent democratic revolution , as well planned mass protests by supporters of opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko to rigged elections aimed at making autocratic outgoing President Leonid Kuchma's former Prime Minister his successors, succeeded in bringing about electoral reform and a new election that Yushchenko won by a wide margin.

     The Northern Ireland Peace Process suffered a serious setback in January, when the Northern Ireland Police Chief stated that the IRA was behind a $50 million bank robbery on December 20. Some gains had been made in late fall with the IRA decommissioning more weapons, but its refusal to have the weapons photographed left the more extreme unionist Party, currently the largest Protestant party, unwilling to join in a government with Sien Fein. British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that Progress is possible in the Northern Ireland, but, there must be "a definitive end to all forms of paramilitary or criminal activity" for that to occur.

  The International Crisis Group reported, December 21, that the shaky Somalia transitional Federal Government, agreed upon in October, appeared on the point of disintegration  Later reports indicated that the government was still intact and an African Union peace. keeping force might escort it back to the capital of Mogadishu. Even if that occurs, the government is unstable, and if it collapses, Somalia would likely return to being an active battleground of competing gangs. Indeed, the violence, while reduced, has yet to cease.

     British Petroleum CEO, John Browne commented, in December,  notes that, "...The growth in demand for oil in 2003 and 2004 has been so strong that for the first time in 30 years, the rate of oil demand growth worldwide almost matches the growth of GDP . That is the context in which the rise in prices we've seen over the last 12 months has developed. That rise is driven by demand, particularly the dramatic growth in demand in China, which has increased its imports of oil by 400% in just 4 years , and is reinforced by concern about supply security. For most of the last two decades, the market has operated with around 3mn b/d of spare capacity. This year, that spare capacity has fallen to around 1mn b/d - an amount less than is produced in a number of areas where continuity of supply has been threatened by disruptions - including Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela . There has been no shortage, but there has been a fear that a shortage would develop..."( Middle East Economic Digest , December 20-27, 2004).

     New production capacity is being found, though it is often a long and uncertain process to link it to the world market, and much of that production is in, or transportation of it must pass through, unstable areas. At the current rate of increase in demand, especially in China and India, even with no interruption of production, supply cannot long keep up with demand.   Unless increased conservation and a shift to alternative fuels and methods of transportation are undertaken quickly, a serious energy shortage bringing economic, social and political crises, with the danger of serious conflict, are in the foreseeable and not too distant future . Some work toward alternatives is taking place with the development of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles (though there are hydrogen production problems yet to be overcome), but these developments are currently minuscule compared to the need.

top

     In the United States, the just released 2002 National Index of Violence and Harm (NIVAH ), released in December, reveals although we are hurting each other less, we are hurting ourselves more.

       While "Interpersonal" street crime continued to drop (though at a slower pace than before) "Intrapersonal" self-inflicted harm, such as drug deaths and suicide, has increased.   We are also hurting each other less through societal "structural" forces that affect quality of life, as well as through societal "institutions" such as government, corporations, and family. Harm resulting from law enforcement, led by a drop in cases of abuse and misconduct went down from 97 in 2001 to 59 in 2002.

         There was a large drop in hate crimes in 2002. In 2001 a surge in hate crimes occurred (12,020 compared to 9,924 in 2000), fueled mainly by post-9/11 anti-Muslim crimes. Then in 2002 hate-crime levels dropped to the lowest level (9,222) seen since 1995. In the area of self-inflicted harm, drug deaths increased to 26,018 in 2002, compared to 21,683 deaths in 2001. While not as dramatic, the rate of suicides and self-inflicted injuries increased by 2.3% in 2002.

         The rise in intrapersonal harm is directly correlated with an increase in "social negligence," which continues to climb at record levels . Though the high school drop-out rate did decrease significantly, the other social negligence indicators again rose, some dramatically:
(a) lack of health insurance; from 14.6 to 15.2% of the population, with over 43,000,000 uninsured in 2002;
(b) hunger (according to the USDA over 12,000,000 households experienced food insecurity, and
(c) homelessness (in 2001 requests for emergency shelter rose 13% from 2000, while in 2002 the increase was 17% from 2001).

 Homelessness and hunger have been on an upward swing for most years since 1995. Lead researcher Dr. Neil Wollman stated, "Unless new forces come into play, the overall picture cannot be expected to improve in the foreseeable future - in fact, hunger, homelessness, and lack of health insurance worsened again in 2003.   Certainly no one is anticipating a decrease in these human needs, while at the same time improved state budgets are still not generally strong and the national deficit has led to further cutting of federal domestic spending. Given the basic nature of these long unfulfilled needs - and the fact that a number of other countries see fit to provide in these area - we may need to look more closely at ourselves and our self image of being a compassionate people."

For more information, contact Neil Wollman, Ph.D., Senior Fellow of the Manchester College Peace Studies Institute and Professor of Psychology (260)982-5346, njwollman@manchester.edu. The complete index and information about its compilation is available at: http://www.manchester.edu/links/violenceindex. To receive periodic updates of the Index of Violence and Harm, E-mail njwollman@manchester.edu, with "Nivah Updates" in the subject line.