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Vol. XX, No. 1 Fall, 2005
Nonviolent Change Journal helps
to network the peace community: providing dialoguing, exchanges of ideas,
articles, reviews, reports and announcements of the activities of peace
related groups and meetings, reviews of world developments relating to
nonviolent change and resource information concerning the development of
human relations on the basis of mutual respect.
WORLD DEVELOPMENTS
Steve Sachs
The coming of fall brings with it a
growing problem for world peace, the increasing
likelihood of the proliferation of atomic weapons, made more difficult by
Bush administration policy and lack of adequate diplomacy. Daryl Kimball,
President of the Arms Control Association, noted, "The 2005 nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty (NPT) RevCon in New York comes to a close
today failing to produce agreement on any substantive reports or statements.
This represents one of if not the most acute failures in the history of the
NPT, with none of the three 'main committees' reaching agreement on key
treaty issues (disarmament, nonproliferation and regional security, and
peaceful uses of nuclear energy under strict and verifiable control). Why?
During the first three weeks, the conference could not agree on an agenda or
work program because the United States sought to block discussion of nuclear
disarmament-related commitments and decisions from the 2000 and 1995 NPT
Review Conferences, leading Egypt and other non-aligned states to insist that
the conference should refer to them and discuss them (as reported by Global
Beat: http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/index.html#fizzle)". Other bush
administration policy encouragements of nuclear proliferation have been its
refusal to honor earlier U.S. pledges to work to faze out its nuclear
weaponry, insisted upon by non-nuclear nations in return for their support of
non-proliferation, instead launching new U.S. nuclear weapons programs, and
taking a hard line diplomatically with North Korea and Iran, while
threatening them in invading Iraq (which temporarily made the U.S. less able
to respond to those nation's proliferation efforts).
Iran
appears to have decided (as some commentators predicted) that it is more
important for it to be impendent in producing nuclear fuel for its
electricity generating reactors, and to have the option (which it is likely
perusing) of nuclear weapons development, with probable UN sanctions, than to
avoid sanctions and rely on economically beneficial European supplied nuclear
fuel for peaceful purposes only. At this writing the European Union (EU) is
attempting to persuade Iran
to reverse its decision to begin enriching nuclear fuel, and the UN has not
yet taken any action on Iran's
commencing uranium enrichment. Dafne Linzer, in the August 2 Washington Post, reported that the new National Intelligence
Estimate includes credible indicators that Iran's military is conducting
clandestine work, but there no information linking those projects directly to
a nuclear weapons program. Rather, primarily through its nuclear energy
program, Iran
is acquiring and mastering technologies that could be diverted to bomb
making.
Meanwhile, talks between the U.S. and its five Asian collaborators (particularly
China, who has taken a leading roll in getting North Korea back to the negotiating table) and North Korea continue to be on and off, with
the only agreement, to date, to continue the series of talks. On the
positive side, North and South Korea
continue to take moves toward reconciliation. Leaders of the North Korean
Communist Party made their first visit to the South Korean Parliament, as
part of a four day late August tour of the South Korean Capital,
that culminated in a banquet with South Korean President Roo Moo Hyun. In the meantime, North Korea's food and economic
crisis is increasing, even as the government is beginning to follow the
Chinese move toward developing a market economic sector. The International
Crisis Group, on April 29, (Asia Report N°96)
stated, "Despite the deepening nuclear
confrontation between North
Korea and the world, the North is
undergoing the most profound economic changes since the founding of the state
57 years ago. It is unclear if the regime is capable of fully embracing the
market; the final outcome cannot be predicted, and no major new economic
engagement should be attempted until the nuclear issue is resolved. Nevertheless,
the international community has an opportunity to increase the chances that
North Korea will make a successful transition from a Stalinist command
economy to one that is more market-driven and integrated into the global
economy. Facilitating its economic reforms remains the best strategy for
pushing the North towards more acceptable international conduct. There are
some important preliminary steps not involving the transfer of meaningful
resources that ought to be undertaken immediately both in order to prepare
for what should be done if a nuclear deal is struck and to show Pyongyang why it needs
to make that deal in its own interest".
In the area of preventing former Soviet:
weapons of mass destruction, material for making them, and experts on producing
them, from going to other nations or terrorist groups, the U.S. is currently spending less to assist Russia with
weapons of mass destruction security than it did prior to Bush attaining the
U.S. Presidency. Rand, June
2005, reports that Rand Corporation has a new book on the topic of diversion
of WMD from thee former USSR,
which can be downloaded from the web.
Top
Western European insurance broker Aon stated, in April, that danger or terrorist attack has risen in 31 nations, many of them in
western Europe. Aon published its second annual
risk map, dividing the world into five categories of risk - low, guarded,
elevated, high and severe. In a year's time, Iraq rose from fifth to first place in the
rankings, with 2,922 terror incidents recorded in the 12 months ending in
February 2005. Other countries where the risk is considered severe
include India, Pakistan, Israel
and the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia
and Colombia.
They are joined by Nepal
and Somalia,
which have been upgraded to the worst category since 2004. Almost half of the countries with an
increased risk of terrorist attack were in Europe, where increased recruiting
of radical Islamists for a tour of duty in Iraq has occurred, with these
people returning to their own country, feeling motivated and recruiting
others, according to Mr. Bassett, a former bomb disposal expert. (Times of London, April 18). PBS Frontline
in collaboration with The New York
Times, made a similar finding in a January documentary (now viewable on
line), pointing out that al Qaeda's
has gained greatly increased support among Muslims in Europe, over the war in
Iraq as well as continuing resentment over Palestine--amplified by newly
created Arab mass media. This is providing a growing source of new recruits
who see al Qaeda as an effective tool for combating what they--or at least
the religious advisors inciting them--see as U.S. world domination. The
documentary includes several interviews with European anti-terrorist
security experts, who are increasingly alarmed at Washington's handling
of the situation. The recent
successful, and later unsuccessful, bombings of London
subways and busses are manifestations of the increased terrorist activity in Europe. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson stated, in
April, on his Counterterrorism blog that in order
to avoid admitting that the Global War on Terror is not working, Condoleeza Rice's State Department has concealed the
State Department's Congressionally-mandated annual report on terrorist
incidents from public scrutiny. The latest report shows that the number
of reported terrorist incidents jumped
from 172 significant attacks in 2003, to 655 in 2004. 300 of those incidents
took place in Kashmir. The most important
increase in terrorism, according to Johnson, has been Iraq. Rand
Corporation (Rand 2005, down
loadable in pdf format), includes an essay by
terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman noting that world wide terrorism has been
increasing dramatically, including suicide attacks. "Excluding 9/11, for
2001, there were 188 deaths. In 2002, there were 384; 2003 saw 628 fatalities
from suicide attacks. Within the first quarter of 2004, the number of
fatalities from suicide attacks has exceeded 1,100 and none of these numbers
include fatalities in Iraq.
It seems very likely that we will see more suicide attacks in the United States
in the future. The suicide aspect of the 9/11 attacks was
essential to their success and stunning impact..."
The Royal Institute for International
Affairs, now known as Chatham House, recently published findings showing that
the wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan
have boosted Al Qaeda's effectiveness and increased the terrorist threat.
More important, the report stated that the British government's over reliance on Washington's
strategy, and its willingness to act as "pillion passenger" to the United States' war on terror has hampered
British efforts to formulate an effective anti-terror strategy of its
own, causing it to partially overlook its own experience fighting terrorism
in Northern Ireland
over a 30-year period. Political scientist,
presented an analysis in an OpEd piece in IHT, May 19, holding that Former CIA
analyst Larry Johnson notes in his Counterterrorism blog
that suicide bombing is motivated more by a rejection of western interference
in local affairs than by religion. "What
nearly all suicide terrorist attacks actually have in common,
is a specific secular and strategic goal: to compel modern democracies to
withdraw military forces from territory that the terrorists consider to be
their homeland."
The war
in Iraq continues to be
very intense, and has become even more so, of late with an increased
number of U.S.
and Iraqi deaths in August. The Sunni-dominated insurgency, supported by
foreign and some other fighters, continues to produce a continuous stream of
suicide bombings and other attacks aimed at Iraqi security forces,
kidnappings of foreign workers and diplomats, attacks on coalition troops,
sabotage of public services, and, most importantly, assassinations of Shi'a leaders.
Top
Officially, U.S. "combat deaths" exceeded 1800 in early August, with over 80
officially killed in July. But the actual
number of dead and wounded U.S.
service people in Iraq
is much higher, including a larger number of casualties not officially
defined as "combat casualties" by the pentagon. In all, about 1 in 25 U.S.
military personnel deployed to Iraq have died, and about 1 in 5
have been killed or wounded sufficiently to send them home. A group of
British academics, counting official and news reports, estimated, in July,
that 25,000 Iraqis have been killed in the war, 9% of whom were children and
9% women. An estimated 37% were killed by Americans. U.S. military
authorities have dismissed the report, but admit that they don't know what
the actual figure. Dexter Filkins and David Cloud
reported in The New York Times,
July 24, that the number of insurgent attacks in Iraq has
continued at a steady pace of roughly 65 a day, but the sophistication of the attacks is
increasing daily. For example, when placing roadside bombs in the carcasses
of dead animals became ineffective, insurgents designed bombs that look like
they are part of the curb, and are virtually undetectable until it is too
late. At the same time, counter insurgency operations have not been able to
reduce the number of anti U.S.
supported government fighters.
Michael Scheuer,
Harlan Ullman, Phebe
Marr, Pat Lang, Stephen Ulph and Mahan Abedin presented an analysis at a Jamestown Foundation
conference, in April, stating that that the current insurgent strategy appears to be to keep overstretched U.S. forces
pinned down, while attacks against Iraqis render any rational government
impossible. The largely Sunni insurgents know they can't win the war.
What they want is for the Shia to award them a
disproportionate influence in exchange for halting the rebellion. It might
also be that at least some insurgents want a separate Suni
state or autonomous region. Some might hope to be able to make the cost of
the U.S.
remaining sufficiently high that it will withdraw, making possible a rebel
victory, or at least setting conditions for a very favorable settlement. Many
foreign fighters and other militants may be primarily engaged in attacking
U.S. forces and their allies wherever they can find them, at least as long as
the U.S. is engaged in the Middle East. In any case, it is clear that the Iraqi struggle is becoming, and may
have already become, a civil war.
The pattern and intensity
of insurgent attacks has been polarizing Iraqis, making it dangerous and very
difficult for moderates to play a stabilizing role. Meanwhile, in response to
continuing insurgent strikes against Shiites, there are an increasing number
of Shiite attacks against Sunis. Interior Ministry
special forces units, with a reputation for effectiveness and brutality, have
been reported to be striking against Sunis in Baghdad and other
places. Steven Vincent wrote in an OpEd piece in The New York Times, July 31, that Shia militants had infiltrated the Basra police force,
and a senior police lieutenant had told him that some officers were behind
many of the killings of former Baath party members
in that city.
Major General Peter W. Chiarelli,
who commanded the First Cavalry Division in securing and rebuilding Iraq, was
quoted in The New York Times, August
22 (Thom Shanker, "Success in Iraq Depends on
Services and Jobs, General Says,", International Edition, p. A5) that
that reconstruction to provide jobs
and services are a necessary part of succeeding in Iraq. "A gun on
every street corner, although visually appealing, provides only a short term
solution, and does not equate to long term security grounded in democratic
process." Meanwhile, the
transition government in Iraq has been unable to reach agreement on a new
constitution by the August 15 deadline, and continues to debate numerous
provisions, and without a resolution of a number of key constitutional issues
that adequately satisfies enough of the diverse interests in the country, it
may not be politically possible to unify the country to the point of ending,
or at least minimizing the civil strife.
Thus it might be that the situation in Iraq
has reached the point where it is impossible for stability to be attained
in a united Iraq
without a far larger number of effective forces than it appears possible to
be put in place. President Bush continues to refuse to increase the size of
the U.S. armed forces, and given the combination of his ally alienating
diplomacy and the terrible state of affairs that his badly bungled actions
have created in Iraq (note, for example, that a very large number of U.S.
troops still do not have proper body armor, although it is available on the
market so that family members of soldiers have been purchasing it for their
relatives in Iraq!), so that it does not seem possible for adequate forces to
be bought in from other nations.
Meanwhile, the training of
effective Iraqi military and police forces is very slow, while those forces
are taking high casualties, so that it seems unlikely that a sufficiently
capable government force can be put in place soon enough to attain stability.
At the same time, a secret British government memorandum, published by the London Daily Mail,
in early July, indicates that Britain
was preparing to draw down its forces in Iraq
before the London
bombing. The memo indicates that the U.S.
was planning cutbacks as well: "US political military thinking is
still evolving. But there is a strong U.S.
military desire for significant force reductions to bring relief to overall U.S.
commitment levels.
Emerging U.S. plans
assume that 14 out of 18 provinces could be handed over to Iraqi control by
early 2006, allowing a reduction in overall MNF-I from 176,000 down to
66,000. There is, however, a debate between the Pentagon/Centcom...who
favor a relatively bold reduction in force numbers, and MNF-I whose approach
is more cautious...." The reason for the U.S. troop withdrawals under
serious consideration is not perceived or anticipated improvement in the
ability of Iraqis to attain order and stability; rather the reductions are
being proposed because of the combat exhaustion of the forces in Iraq
combined with the unavailability of any where near sufficient replacements.
Thus reducing U.S, forces is likely to make them less effective,
and the country more dangerous for those troops remaining as well as for the
Iraqis.
This leaves the United States
in a difficult position. On the one hand, remaining involved in an
endless war not only brings death, injury, psychological trauma and great
economic loss and loss to Americans and Iraqis, but it fuels anti-western and
anti-American sentiment, leading to increased terrorist recruiting and
training. Meanwhile, it appears that there is a political limit to how long U.S. forces
can remain, with no end in sight. On the other hand, if the U.S. simply pulls out, it would likely leave Iraq in
turmoil, possibly ultimately leading to another terrible regime, and or the
breaking up of the country, serious destabilization of the region, and an
encouragement to terrorists world wide. If a
pro-terrorist regime came to power in all or an oil rich portion of Iraq, it
might provide huge amounts of funding to terrorist groups.
Destabilization of the region might
significantly reduce global oil supplies, seriously impacting the world
economy. For the moment, U.S.
policy remains tied to the questionable hope that Iraqi security forces will
soon be strong enough to at least allow a reduction of U.S., British
and other forces. Unless the Bush Administration quickly, humbly and
convincingly shifts to an extremely cooperative diplomacy (which appears very
unlikely), its best remaining option has an extremely high risk.
Top
As of late May, Bush administration international policy appeared to be
continuing in the same self-defeating direction. In a speech at the World
Economic Forum, Deputy U.S. Secretary of State, Robert Zoellick
asserted that the US government intends to fundamentally transform the way it
deals with the Middle East by replacing traditional diplomacy conducted
through U.S. embassies with pressure to adopt the Bush administration's ideas
on free trade and democracy.
Similarly, Amnesty International's Annual report,
released in late May, stated that the Bush Administration's: blatant
disregard for international human rights and humanitarian law in the 'war on
terror' has continued to make a mockery of President Bush's claims that the
U.S. was the global champion of human rights. Images of detainees in U.S. custody tortured in Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq shocked the world. War
crimes in Iraq, and
mounting evidence of the torture and ill-treatment of detainees in U.S. custody
in other countries, sent an unequivocal message to the world, that, in the
administration's view, human rights may be sacrificed ostensibly in the name
of security.
As many other's have
reported, images of human rights violations by the U.S. at Abu Garib (where the most damming photo's may be waiting
release), in Afghanistan, at Guantanimo, and other
places, including the U.S. sending suspects to friendly countries that engage
in torture for questioning, have sharply reduced the view of he United States
abroad, especially in the Middle East - helping terror group recruitment, for
no perceivable U.S. benefit, as interrogation experts, including those at the
FBI, have found that torture and strong intimidation produce very poor
intelligence information. (A chilling account of some of this practice is in
Peter Maas May 1 article in New York
Times Magazine).
It would seem then, that
the Bush Administration's approach to the world is fundamentally
counterproductive, and extremely damaging to the entire planet. That is
increasingly the view of people around the globe. Philip S. Golub wrote (in English) in Le Monde Diplomatique,
July 12, "...The unilateralism of the United States - economic,
commercial and military - is at odds with the multilateral reality of today's
world. U.S.
politics of military supremacy contradicts its sacred principle of free
markets. Will this be a turning point of history, like the one that marked
the end of the first phase of capitalist globalization, which lasted from
1880 to 1914?..." A piece of
the answer to Golub's question is likely to be what
unfolds in U.S.
politics.
On that score, Gareth
Porter, writing in FPIF, April 4,
proposed that the antiwar movement now avoid what he believes was a strategic
error made by those opposed to the Vietnam War: demanding unilateral
withdrawal, which he perceives allowed Nixon to prolong the war for four more
years. Porter states that the anti-war movement than would have been more
effective by focusing on developing a proposal for a negotiated settlement,
which he believes would also be more effective now.
At the same
time, there is at least one indication
of some possible change in U.S.
foreign policy. The Brookings Institution's Ivo
Daalder noted, in Brookings, May 5, that President Bush's then recent trip may
signal a return to Great Power Politics in place of the Global War on
Terrorism, now that the President is realizing that GWOT has not been very
effective. The question is, will Bush merely seek to change the name of this
policy initiative, or will there be a substantive shift.
Top
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported on August
22 that the current year has seen the
highest number of U.S. casualties
in Afghanistan,
since 2001, and the violence is likely to increase as legislative elections
approach on September 18. Former CIA agent Michael Scheuer
suggested, at the June 27 Jamestown Foundation seminar, that the recent upsurge of violence in Afghanistan
is linked to Osama bin Laden's strategy of
recasting the Islamic resistance movement with the U.S. playing the role of
the infidel Soviet invaders. "The increased violence is mainly due to
Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgents having emerged relatively unscathed from the
deadliest period of Coalition military activity, October 2001-March 2002.
They have since regrouped, reinforced, retrained, and rearmed. They also
benefited from a two-plus-year respite resulting from the Coalition keeping
its conventional units in garrison and chasing the insurgents only with
Special Forces and intelligence officers.
The Taliban acknowledged
this respite in May 2005 when it posted 'night letters' condemning Karzai for giving the U.S.
permanent bases and seeking a 'strategic partnership' with Washington. The letters told Afghans that
'the principle duty of the mujahideen [e.g., those
fighting infidels] has just started'." In June, President Bush was asking Prime Minister Tony Blair to place more
British troops in Afghanistan.
The International Crises Group (IGC) reported that month (Go to:
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm? for ICG reporting), that
Independent political parties are being marginalized as September
Parliamentary elections approach in Afghanistan, at the same time that
popular discontent is rising because of continued insecurity, the slow pace
of economic reconstruction and increasing corruption.
IGC finds
that intolerance of political opposition stunting the development of a
pluralistic system was largely responsible for past Afghani violence. If
current laws constraining political parties are not changed, Afghanistan
risks further chaos.
The International Crises
Group April 18 report expressed concern, that Instead of empowering liberal,
democratic voices, the Pakistani
government has co-opted the religious right and continues to rely on it to
counter civilian opposition. By depriving democratic forces of an even
playing field and continuing to ignore the need for state policies that would
encourage and indeed reflect the country's religious diversity, the
government has allowed religious extremist organizations and jihadi groups, and the madrasas
that provide them an endless stream of recruits, to flourish. It has failed
to protect a vulnerable judiciary and equip its law-enforcement agencies with
the tools they need to eliminate sectarian terrorism.
The July 25 Economist notes that the
bomb attack on tourist hotels at the Egyptian resort of Sharm
el-Sheik is unlikely to encourage President Hosni Mubarak to push on with the limited political reforms
he has made to date. It is unclear who carried out the attack. Former CIA
analyst, Michael Scheuer stated on the July 25
airing of the PBS News Hour, that
he believes that Al Qaeda has franchised itself. The only thing that is clear
is that Egypt's
draconian crackdown on radicals in the 1990s is not protecting it today.
The Israeli pullout from Gaza and 4 settlements in
the West Bank in mid August, by a
very large force of unarmed Israeli security personnel, went faster than
expected, with some resistance, and over 400 arrests in the first two days;
but over all relatively little disturbance (and most of those arrested were
released the next day). The strongest resisting settlements had their populations
removed one location at a time in a few days at the end of the operation.
The process was very emotional, and emotionally difficult for all involved, but
it transpired without major difficulty. Settlers are being compensated
between $400,000 and $800,000 each for removal. At least 55% of the Israeli
public approves of Ariel Sharon's decision to remove settlements from Gaza. The 45% who object, are passionate opponents of removal,
placing the Israeli Defense Forces between competing loyalties and concerns,
which the settler movement attempted to exploit. Haaretz, July 19, describes a
weekend protest march,
"They stood in long
lines, the youths of the rule of law and the youths of total belief. One was
silent and scared, the other was pressuring for refusal. One was idle, the
other was calling out, 'Jews don't banish Jews.' At
9:30 P.M., Border Police officers stopped the orange march, two kilometers
from Netivot. Was there really a need? Was it right
to use Israel Defense Forces soldiers to stop a civilian rally inside
sovereign Israeli territory? At 10:30 P.M., none of this mattered. The
dynamics of arbitrariness on the one hand and unsupervised rebellion on the
other had taken their toll. Spread out on the yellow fields was a sight that
looked like it came out of pictures of wars in the Middle Ages. There were
long lines of police officers and soldiers and Border Police officers, and
there were masses of religious warriors. And the cry echoing into the night:
Soldier, police officer - refuse orders. Soldier, police officer - refuse
orders." Israeli security personnel overwhelmingly obeyed orders
throughout the withdrawal.
Top
Resistance to the withdrawal of settlements also
has led some settlers to attack Palestinians and Israeli Arabs, perhaps for some out of anger, and for others in
the hope that escalating Palestinian-Israeli violence would derail removal. Maariv reported that from
January to April settler attacks on Palestinians soared by 52%, with more
than 265 cases being brought against settlers being suspected of disturbing
order and exercising violence against Palestinian civilians, compared with
174 cases brought against settlers between January and April, 2004.
In June a
former soldier killed 3 Israeli Arabs on a bus, before being beaten to death
by the other passengers, and a similar murderous attack occurred in August.
While many settlers are coming to terms with the Israeli government on moving
out of Gaza,
a sizable group of others in the settler movement have been marching and
demonstrating, often with threats of violence.
In July, there
occurred the "Orange Shirt March" towards Gush Katif, that Uri Avnery
described as "a distant echo of the 1920 'March on Rome' by Benito
Mussolini's 'black shirts' that overthrew the Italian democracy. Some
20 thousand soldiers and police were mobilized to stop them. On the face of
it, the army and police won, since the orange shirts did not reach the Gaza strip. But for
three days, under the blazing sun, the rebels put on public display their
determination, unity and discipline". Avnery
concluded, "None of the big public organizations - from the Bar
Association and the Chambers of Commerce to the Journalists' Association and
the academic bodies - found it necessary to raise their voice in defense of
democracy, while the orange militants were flooding all the TV channels,
which made no attempt to present other views. The Silence of the Sheep, the
silence of Weimar.
I hope that all this will
change when the confrontation approaches its climax. I hope that Israeli
democracy will find in itself the hidden strength that was so tragically
lacking in Weimar.
But this will not happen if courageous people do not sound the trumpet, and if the silent majority does not abandon its
silence and demonstrate its stand in voice and color. Otherwise, the 'March
on Gush Katif' will be only a foretaste of the
'March on Jerusalem'".
The question is what will happen now that the evacuation is
completed. Israel
undertook no action or negotiation about what would happen in Gaza, and to the peace
process after removal. Numerous commentators say that this will make further
progress more difficult, and may lead to avoidable problems. Also, it remains
to be seen if this removal will make it easier or more difficult for Israel to make further withdrawals from the West Bank. The International Crisis Group, in the
August 1 Crisis Watch reported "In Israel
and the Occupied
Territories the 5-month
informal ceasefire by Palestinian militant groups was severely undermined by
spiraling violence on both sides".
Within the Palestinian
territories, Hamas
has moved in a new direction over the past several months, deciding to run
for Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections in the West Bank and
Gaza, suspend all militant operations along with other Palestinian factions,
and consider joining the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Hamas won local elections in nearly a third of Gaza and West Bank
communities, in May, while Fatah won in 45 of the
84 communities.The Israeli government
appears deeply worried that Hamas is repositioning
itself in a political mode that will give it significant influence in the
Palestinian Authority.
Top
On the
economic front, the Palestine Trade
Centre (Paltrade) in Gaza is working with the
Israel-Palestine Centre for Research and Information (IPCRI), an
Arab-Israeli non-governmental centre specialized in research and training to
help Gaza fruit exporters meet European agricultural production standards. As
a result of this joint project, 90 percent of strawberry and cherry tomato
growers in the Gaza Strip now enjoy the benefits of export to European Union
countries, thus raising prices of their produce as much as 45 cents per
kilogram. Palestinian project coordinator Muhammad Hamlawi
says the success of the project lies in its practical benefits:
"Politics aside, Israeli agricultural expertise is an important source
for developing agriculture in Palestine.
In addition to being the most advanced, it is also the closest. If an
institution like IPCRI is available to provide permits for our teams to enter
Israel
and reach research and training institutions, this will be very important for
us (Common Ground News Service, July 1)".
Lebanon's
elections in June defeated the pro-Syrian candidates, ending Syria's long domination of its
neighbor. Some inter-factional violence continues in the country.
The Syrian government ended cooperation with the U.S. on
terrorism, and simultaneously began has what appears to be a sweeping crack
down on civil society leaders and opposition members. At the same time, Syria now contains a number of pro al Queda groups, including the Salafist
movement, which emerged after former President Assad's
efforts to annihilate the Muslim Brotherhood by mass slaughter in 1982. One
of its leading members, Abu Musíab al-Suri, is believed to be in Iraq and is suspected of being a
key Al Qaeda theoretician. (as profiled by the
Jamestown Foundation, August 11, and reported by Global Beat August 15-25,
http://www.globalbeat.org.)
Saudi Arabia has a new king, the former Crown Prince Abdullah, who has effectively been the
ruler for the last decade. King Abdullah has been seen as both a supporter of
reform, and traditional in values - free of corruption and deeply Islamic. He
has encouraged the next generation of princes to support reform, pushed for
an Arab-Israeli peace settlement, and supported dialogue with the West to
counter Islamic extremism. He has also steadily expanded his de facto control
of the Royal Court,
the Council of Ministers, Majlis, and royal appointments.
Now that King Fahd's death has given him full power, it will be
interesting to see to what extent he moves forward in reform. However, while
some commentators see the new king as having strong alliances among factions
in the leading elite, others suggest that enough factions of the royal family
may now assert themselves to force a more collective rule, behind the scenes.
In any case, neither the current king or any of
those close to succession are young, so that Saudi Arabia may go through a number
of changes of top leadership in a few years time. Also, the possibly
increasing instability in the region, and the political activity of those not
currently within the circle of power in Saudi Arabia, may well impact its
policy and leadership in the not too distant future.1, 2005)
The International Crisis
Group Reported, May 6, that there is growing
pressure on the government of Bahrain from Shiites, who make up 70% of
its population, for the reforms promised by the ruling emir to become
genuine. Bahrain now
serves as a crucial U.S.
base in the Persian Gulf, as Saudi Arabia
increasingly sensitive to the presence of U.S. troops,
Following a meeting of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, during which member states urged the U.S. to establish a withdrawal time-table for U.S. military personnel based in the region, the political leaders in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, in July, sent
signals that they will soon want
American military personnel to leave. Later in the month Uzbekistan asked the U.S.
to withdraw in six months from the U.S.
base in its country, that
has been a major supply link to Afghanistan. The U.S. has criticized Uzbekistan's
terrible human rights record, but the stronger reason for the action is
likely pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin,
who is interested in re-establishing Moscow's
predominant influence in Central Asia, as
indicated by the discussions at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
gathering.
The removal of U.S. bases and troops from much of the
Caucuses is disrupting Donald Rumsfeld's "Lily
Pad" strategy of placing highly mobile resources at small jumping-off
points around the world, and may reduce U.S. ability to intervene in the
region. The action may also reduce the extent to which the U.S. is again
making the mistake it did during the cold war of militarily supporting anyone
opposed to its then enemy, "communism", resulting in helping to
keep in power a number of extremely bad and unpopular regimes, and ultimately
leading to instability and armed conflict in some of those countries. Indeed,
much of the instability and continuing violent struggle in Africa, that the U.S. is now concerned about transforming, is
the result of the U.S. and
the USSR
indiscriminately arming governments and groups across the cotenant.
China also will be happy with U.S. withdrawal form
the Caucuses, as it does not want to be militarily encircled by the United
States. The six members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (S.C.O.) has
the overall strategic aim for Beijing and Moscow of curbing U.S. influence in
Central Asia, in order to establish a joint sphere of influence there.
For China,
the first, goal is to obtain clear access to the considerable energy
resources of the region, and the second is to expand markets for its goods,
outlets for investment and collaboration against Islamist movements. Russia hopes
to restore some of its influence over its "near abroad."
The $3.6 billion Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline project is going ahead, that will
eventually carry a million barrels of oil a day from the Caspian to Turkish port of Ceyhan, without crossing Russia, and
allowing the oil to be placed directly into supertankers. Simply filling the
pipeline itself requires 10 million barrels and will take several months. To
date, Caspian oil had to transit via pipelines in Russia. It should be noted,
first, that the volume of oil will not be sufficient to meaningfully reduce U.S. reliance
on Middle Eastern oil. Second, the pipeline will cross Caucuses nations and
regions whose politics are uncertain.
ChevronTexaco, in May,
foiled an attempt by the China National Offshore Oil Corp. to buy Unocal, America's
ninth-largest oil company, as China's rapidly expanding demand for oil is
creating competition with the U.S. In late August the China National Petroleum
Corporation acquired a Canadian oil firm with substantial reserves in Kszakhstab for $4.18 billion. There are indications
that China
will continue to seek acquisition of sources of energy.
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At the same time, a study
by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), released in
April, indicates that China faces some
potential serious financial difficulties, that could impact heavily on its
own and the world economies, from excessive credit, investment, exports
and bad loans. "China's
economic planners are also running enormous risks for China and for
the global trading system as a whole by attempting to accomplish with a
turbo-charged export-led strategy in one generation the economic developments
that should have been the work of two".
The government of Indonesia
and Aceh rebels signed a peace treaty, August 15,
which if put into effect will end 30 years of civil war. The
International Crisis Group (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?)
states, "The political context is more promising
than at the time of the failed 2002 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement but
difficult details remain to be worked out on everything from amnesties to
political participation.
A number of
measures need to be taken urgently, including disseminating information in
Indonesian and Acehnese; coordinating the agencies
working on amnesty, disarmament, reintegration, monitoring and funding;
ensuring that government promises to various groups are quickly kept;
preparing communities to receive returning GAM members; and protecting
vulnerable groups, including those who report violations. Maintaining support
in Jakarta is
as important as keeping the two sides in Aceh on
board".
In a major breakthrough for pace in Northern Ireland,
the Irish Republican Army (IRA), in late July, formally ordered an end to
its armed campaign and says it will pursue exclusively peaceful means. All
IRA arms are to be decommissioned as rapidly as possible, with verification
by the Canadian General John De Chastelain's
decommissioning commission, with two church ministers, a Protestant and a
Catholic, invited to act as witnesses. The Independent Monitoring Commission,
which examines paramilitary activity, has also been asked to produce an
additional report in January 2006, three months after their next regular
report.
British Prime
Minister Tony Blair said it was a "step of unparalleled magnitude",
and the British Army has begun moving troops out of Northern Ireland, and
dismantling some facilities, with the idea of eventually cutting its Northern
Ireland military contingent in half. During the fall, the government will
introduce legislation to allow the return of paramilitary fugitives. In a
joint communiqué, the British and Irish governments welcomed the statement
and said if the IRA's words "are borne out by actions, it will be a
momentous and historic development....Verified acts of completion will
provide a context in which we will expect all parties to work towards the
full operation of the political institutions, including the Northern Ireland
Assembly and Executive, and the North-South structures, at the earliest
practicable date."
The Northern Ireland Secretary, Peter Hain,
says he would like to see Sinn Fein
members taking places on Northern
Ireland's Policing Board as soon as possible. DUP leader Ian Paisley greeted the
statement with skepticism, saying that the IRA had "reverted to
type" after previous "historic" statements. "We will
judge the IRA's bona fides over the next months and years based on its
behavior and activity," he said. He add that
the IRA had also "failed to provide the transparency necessary to truly
build confidence that the guns have gone in their entirety".
Ulster
Unionist Party Sir Reg Empey, told the BBC's
World at One it would take time to convince the people of Northern Ireland
that this was more than just rhetoric. He said: "People are so
skeptical, having been burnt so many times before". SDLP leader Mark Durkan welcomed the statement, saying it was "clear,
clean and complete", but "long overdue". He called on Sinn
Fein to commit to the new policing structures in Northern Ireland, as his party
had done. The IRA pledge was welcomed by the United States administration as
"an important and potentially historic statement".
A White House
statement said the words must now be followed by actions and acknowledged
there would be skepticism, particularly among victims and their families.
"They will want to be certain that this terrorism and criminality are
indeed things of the past." Later
in July, the Northern Ireland police
increased patrols after a series of attacks on Catholic Churches and Catholic
owned pubs in and around Ballymena, in County
Antrim, that are blamed on loyalist (hard line Protestant) paramilitary
groups. There have been calls from many parties around the country to end
the violence. In late August, for three consecutive nights Protestant and
Catholic youths clashed in Belfast,
following a soccer game, with resulting property damage but few major
injuries.
Top
The International Crisis Group reported
in late May that Kosovo Albanian
politics remain extremely fractious, with mutual distrust between the two leading parties, President Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and Hashim Thaci's Democratic Party
of Kosovo (PDK), distracting politicians
from seeking a consensus position for the approaching negotiations on
Kosovo's final status. At that time, tensions had become so bitter that
there was a danger of inter party murders.
In Serbia,
three days after national television had broadcast a film of Serbs executing
six young Muslims after the fall of the Bosnian enclave of Srebrenica in
July1995, the leading newspaper Politika wrote on June 4, "The truth has been smashed
in our faces, painfully and mercilessly." "The Serbian public is
aghast, because it has finally seen that someone actually committed
bestialities in uniform and with Serbian insignia."
The showing may bring
about a new and more realistic perception of the most recent Balkan wars
among the Serbian population. The International Crises group says that Serbia still
needs to further develop nongovernmental organizations and independent media
to complete the development of democracy.
Macedonia has finally completed the implementation
of the Ohrid Peace Accord, ending civil strife with tits Albanian community.
The countries stability still faces uncertainties, externally involving the
settlement of the status of neighboring Kosovo, and internally from
persistent corruption.
As of August 10, the main stage of ethnic cleansing in Dafur appears over, with 90% of the target villages
utterly destroyed, and their surviving populations fled, with protection
provided only by a far from sufficient African Union peace keeping force. More than 2.4 million residents of the
region - a disproportionate number of them women - have been driven from
their homes; at least 200,000 have died from violence and disease and
malnutrition exacerbated by the conflict. The next stage is the developing
humanitarian crises among refugees.
The January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) formally ended war between the Khartoum government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army
(SPLM/A), Africa's longest civil
conflict. Yet as SPLM Chairman John Garang was
sworn in as 1st Vice-President on 9 July, the International Crisis Group
(IGC) reported on July 25 that implementation
was lagging badly, in the face of the old regime's lack of will to
embrace genuine power sharing and elections, and ultimately allowing a
southern self-determination referendum after the six-year interim period, and
lack of capacity in the South to establish and empower basic structures of
governance. Then on July 30,
John Garang,
the only leader the movement has known in its 21 years, was killed in a
helicopter crash. IGC
reported on August 9 that, "The Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement
(SPLA/M) leadership has acted quickly so far to regroup and reorganize, but
the loss...creates an opening for spoilers on all sides to exploit any signs
of uncertainty. The country is at risk of eventually losing a peace agreement
that was already looking somewhat shaky. Garang's
movement must prove it can hold together without his authoritarian hand and
unmatched prestige. It is now somewhat less likely to be able to make a major
contribution to resolving the war and humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur or solving the simmering problems of eastern Sudan.
The odds of
southern secession have increased, to the discomfort of the ruling National
Congress Party in Khartoum.
Key international players like the U.S., who helped broker the
January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), will have to do much more
to help the parties save it". ICG sees the necessity of action in three
areas to stabilize the situation in the short term: "First, the
government and the SPLM must do everything in their power to prevent a
recurrence of the inter-communal violence that erupted in Khartoum and parts of the South. They
should increase joint efforts to appeal for calm, and the SPLM needs to have
full access to the media and freedom of movement in possible hot spots in the
North. The government must do more to restore law and order in the capital
and ensure security forces accord due process to all suspected of involvement
in violence regardless of their origin.
Garang's
successor, Salva Kiir Mayardiit, needs to be installed as First Vice President
on 9 August as the latest plans call for so the full Government of National
Unity can be launched without delay. Secondly, the new SPLM leaders must
remain united in the face of what will surely be efforts to divide them and
undermine the movement. Remaking the SPLM into an open, transparent body
inclusive in its decision-making was an important challenge Garang had just begun to deal with; it is more critical
than ever now that he is gone. Thirdly, increased public and diplomatic
support for the peace agreement and particularly the SPLM is needed at this
difficult time. The troika partners, the U.S.,
UK and Norway, have
a particular responsibility. Washington's
appointment of a Special Representative was important but more must be done
to ensure that hard-line elements in Khartoum
opposed to the CPA do not exploit Garang's death to
back away from its strict implementation.
The UN
Security Council must react quickly to any violations of the CPA's timetable
in order to keep the parties on course. The UN should move rapidly to bring
deployment of its peacekeeping mission in the South back on schedule. It
could also helpfully offer assistance in coordinating and facilitating
investigation into the cause of the crash so that multiple inquiries do not
undermine each other, and chances are maximized for the conclusions to be
widely accepted".
In Somalia, where there is still no central government and the power
vacuum invites small clashes between
various militias, the International Crisis Group (ICG) reported, July 12,
that amidst the international war on terror, a quiet, dirty conflict is being fought out in the ruined capital of
Mogadishu, by al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi
extremists, Ethiopian security services and Western-backed networks. This
clandestine and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and
assassination has seen some American successes, but is producing growing
unease within the broader public.
Top
ICG found at
the end of July, that Demarcation of
the Ethiopia and Eritrea
border is a crucial component of the peace process as the two countries face
massive humanitarian crises. So far intense diplomatic efforts by the UN, Germany
and the U.S.
have seen no progress and demarcation remains at an impasse. Ethiopia maintains its rejection of the April
2002 independent boundary commission decision awarding the disputed border village of Badme to Eritrea. Similarly Eritrea
continually refuses to engage constructively with the UN’s special
envoy.
In Central
Africa, ICG, stated at the end of July that, "Burundi,
embroiled in ethnic warfare since 1993, is only now making painstaking headway towards national reconciliation.
Meanwhile, the civil war in the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which erupted in the summer of
1998, continues in defiance of the Lusaka cease-fire agreement - having ensnared six
other African governments and rebel movements from Rwanda,
Uganda and Burundi".
This spring,
the government of Zimbabwe launched
Operation Murambatsvina (Restore Order), supposedly
an urban renewal campaign that destroyed 700,000 Zimbabweans homes and a huge
number of livelihoods, impacting nearly a fifth of the troubled country's
population, in a nation already in economic and political crisis. African
governments have been shocked, but find it difficult to be critical, making
it problematical for European and other nations to bring about responsive
action at the U.N or elsewhere.
Kofi Annan's sending Anna Tibaijuka,
the Tanzanian director of UN Habitat, as his Special Envoy to report on the
operation, has directly confronted the international community, in Africa and
beyond, with its responsibility to help protect the people of Zimbabwe. The
International Crisis Group stated in Africa Report 97, August 17 (including
detailed recommendations for action: www.crisisgroup.org), "While an
immediate requirement is to reverse as thoroughly as possible the disastrous
humanitarian effects of the operation, action is urgently needed to address
Zimbabwe's larger governance problem. This will require efforts on three
parallel tracks -- the maintenance of overt international pressure, support
for building internal political capacity and, above all, active regional diplomacy
to facilitate political transition".
Top
In Swaziland, an absolute monarchy for more
than 30 years, with a royal leadership that ignores worsening social ills
and a small elite that is often openly corrupt, opposition to the current regime has been growing, while a new
constitution that further codifies broad royal powers and privileges is in
the final stages of preparation. Opposition in recent years has included
strikes and demonstrations by trade unions, students, religious groups and
youth movements, as well as periodic waves of arson and bombings against
government buildings.
Direct
political violence is still more talked about than actual but frustration is
building. IGC (Africa Briefing No. 29, July 14) states that
"Multilateral African institutions, the EU and key countries like South Africa and the U.S. have
been too willing to accept the royalists' line that any change must come very
slowly. More pressure from the outside is needed to help pro-reform elements
inside the country bring back a constitutional monarchy and genuine democracy
that are the best guarantees Swazi instability will not eventually infect the
region".
Kenya was struck by the worst violence
in post-colonial history,
killing 76 and displacing 9,000, in July.
Brazil did not renew its contract with the
International Monetary Fund, when
it expired at the end of March. During the last contract, from 1998 to 2003,
the Brazilian economy showed no growth, with Brazils IMF credit being used to
pay on some of the loans to foreign investors by the fund's largest debtor
nation. Moving away from the neoliberal policies
espoused by the IMF (and World Bank), Brazil's economy expanded by 5.2%
in 2004.
The IMF is returning to Brazil under a new three-year arrangement,
that the Brazilian government helped design (with collaboration from the
Inter American development Bank), allowing the government flexibility in its
new $1 billion loan, that it will use to invest in infrastructure improvement
projects, that it was blocked from undertaking under the previous contract.
For the first time, the IMF has no say in what Brazil invests in, only that the
projects be economically sound. The IMF is generally revising its policies in
Latin America, under pressure from a number
of the continent's governments and international NGOs, and with the
acquiescence of the U.S. Treasury Department. It has been accepted that Argentina will pay back 76% of its debt, and
the Presidents of Brazil, Argentina
and Venezuela
signed an accord, in March, to collectively negotiate debt repayment.
Ecuador experienced a shut down of its oil industry
for two days, in mid-August, as a
result of very strong demonstrations, at first demanding more of the oil
revenue to go for local services, and then calling for nationalization of the
nation's oil industry. Sufficient order was restored on the third day by the
army and police to allow a beginning of a return to petroleum production, but
the unrest continues to threaten the stability of the weak national
government.
Bolivia, following the replacing of its President with a
caretaker head of state, saw its Congress set a date for new Presidential and Congressional Elections,
on December 4, and authorize an
assembly to rewrite the constitution and schedule a referendum on giving more
autonomy to the countries regions.
Top
While the Bush
administration is promoting new elections in Haiti,
and providing diplomatic, military and political support to the government of
interim Prime Minister Gerard Latourtue, hooded police and death squads are reported
to be suppressing the supporters of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide,
whose Lavalas Party continues to hold the greatest
popular support.
Rowan Williams, the Archbishop of Canterbury stated in April that allowing
continued environmental damage risks plunging the world into political chaos,
saying, "When we speak about environmental crisis, we are not to think
only of spiraling poverty and mortality, but about brutal and uncontainable
conflict. An economics that ignores environmental degradation invites social
degradation - in plain terms, violence".
In May, Exxon Mobile
Corporation, in a report, "The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View"
(covered by the Bulletin of Atomic Sciences: www.thebulletin.org) joined the
growing number of analysts predicting that non-OPEC oil production will reach its peak in five years. OPEC oil is likely also near or at its
peak. As Michael Klare reported on TomDispatch.com,
June 27, "Far from being capable of increasing its output, Saudi Arabia
is about to face the exhaustion of its giant fields and, in the relatively
near future, will probably experience a sharp decline in output."
Meanwhile world demand is
growing sharply, especially in China and other developing
economies. Unless action to conserve energy significantly, while rapidly
expanding development of renewable energy, the world is threatened with an
impending economic crises, with social and political consequences that
threaten large scale violence.
Mayors of 132 cities across the U.S. have pledged
to have resolutions passed for their municipalities to comply with the Kyoto
Treaty on Global Warming, and a number of those cities have done so.
In late July, the U.S. Australia,
India and China announced a proposed alternative to the Kyoto Agreement for limiting greenhouse gasses, that
would include requiring developing nations to reduce climate changing
emissions, which Kyoto
does not include. The opposition Australian Labor Party stated that they
believed Kyoto was a better vehicle, and that Australia and the U.S. should ratify it.
Following demonstration
and other pressure, involving NGOs such as the Rainforest Action Network, JPMorgan
Chase, the second largest U.S. bank, announced in May that it was developing
policies to promote sustainable forestry and indigenous people's rights,
blocking funding used for illegal logging, and reducing its own and clients
production of greenhouse gasses. Other banks are also joining in
introducing green policies.
HSBC has promised to
reduce carbon emissions, while Bank of America has stated that it will not
invest in logging in the world's most sensitive forests. Meanwhile, 30 major banks in the U.S. and Europe
have signed on to the Equator Principles, "promoting responsible
environmental stewardship and socially responsible development" by
evaluating the risks that projects pose for forests, natural habitats and
indigenous populations. The guidelines cover 80% of the world project
financing market. Similarly, the World Bank financed Oil Pipeline project
from Chad through Cameron
to the Atlantic had to pass numerous
environmental impact evaluations before approval, provided compensation and
healthcare to local people whose lives an
livelihoods were impacted by the construction, and included a trust fund to
provide all Chadians a share of the profits.
Congress
approved the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), in June. Many
commentators complaining that its predecessor, NAFTA failed to meet all of
its bench marks, and led to a net loss of jobs in the U.S and Mexico, saying
that CAFTA will be far more damaging than it is helpful in all the nations
concerned, and especially among lower income and rural people. It also
contains provisions requiring Central American countries to privatize water
and other services, that are likely to be costly and
quite harmful to those who are less than wealthy.
Top
©2002, 2003, 2004, 2005. All rights reserve. The Nonviolent Change Journal
is published by the Research/Action Team on Nonviolent Large Systems Change -
an interorganizational and international project of
The Organization Development Institute. Opinions expressed are solely
that of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the
editing staff, Nonviolent Change Journal, Organization Development
Institute.
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