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The C.I.A. will continue to be downgraded, and the agency will increasingly serve, as one government consultant with close ties to the Pentagon put it, as 'facilitators' of policy emanating from President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney. This process is well under way. Despite the deteriorating security situation in Iraq, the Bush administration has not reconsidered its basic long-range policy goal in the Middle East: the establishment of democracy throughout the region. Bush's reelection is regarded within the administration as evidence of America's support for his decision to go to war. It has reaffirmed the position of the neoconservatives in the Pentagon's civilian leadership who advocated the invasion, including Paul Wolfowitz, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and Douglas Feith, the Under-secretary for Policy.

According to a former high-level intelligence official, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld met with the Joint Chiefs of Staff shortly after the election and told them, in essence, that the naysayers had been heard and the American people did not accept their message. Rumsfeld added that America was committed to staying in Iraq and that there would be no second-guessing...." Hersh, reports that clandestine teams of American soldiers have been preparing missions into a handful of Arab countries, particularly Iran, where they are using sophisticated equipment to hunt for nuclear sites. He says there is growing pressure among the neocons to carry out airstrikes against Iran if Tehran does not give up on its nuclear ambitions. The new procedures is for action to be initiated by a "Presidential Finding" signed by George Bush, giving Defense Secretary Rumsfeld authority to act without oversight from Congress

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Similarly, Michael Hirsh and John Barry reported in the January 8 issue of Newsweek that the Pentagon has been considering training death squads, on the El Salvador model, to eliminate troublesome Sunni opponents in Iraq . "Now, Newsweek has learned, the Pentagon is intensively debating an option that dates back to a still-secret strategy in the Reagan administration's battle against the leftist guerrilla insurgency in El Salvador in the early 1980s. Then, faced with a losing war against Salvadoran rebels, the U.S. government funded or supported "nationalist" forces that allegedly included so-called death squads directed to hunt down and kill rebel leaders and sympathizers.

Eventually the insurgency was quelled, and many U.S. conservatives consider the policy to have been a success-despite the deaths of innocent civilians and the subsequent Iran-Contra arms-for-hostages scandal. (Among the current administration officials who dealt with Central America back then is John Negroponte, who is today the U.S. ambassador to Iraq. Under Reagan, he was ambassador to Honduras.)...". Mark Benjamin stated, in Salon , April 12, that well over 1 million U.S. troops have fought in Bush's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Pentagon data, approximately one-third the number of troops who were stationed in or around Vietnam during that 15 year conflict.

He reports that an increasing number of military experts believe the Army and Marines in Iraq are months away from being overtaxed to the point of serious dysfunction, if the situation does not become stabilized. If it does not, and the Bush administration continues to reject the ideas of a draft and of permanently increasing the size of the Army and Marines, U.S. ground forces might very well come down to a point not seen since just after Vietnam .

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The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reported in March that 23 countries now have missiles with a range of roughly 600 miles or less. Six countries: India (which tested a short range rocket in November), Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Israel and Saudi Arabia, have missiles that can reach considerably farther and are a cause for concern . Meanwhile, the Bush administration is putting the nuclear weapons of Israel, India and Pakistan on a par, calling on the three to act like Ukraine and South Africa in giving up their nuclear weapons . Negotiations with North Korea on nuclear disarmament continue with little progress , as North Korea fluctuates between belligerence (including official stating it has atomic weapons) and showing a willingness to negotiate. U.S. intelligence now has evidence that North Korea sold processed uranium to Libya, before that nation abandoned its nuclear arms program.

Similarly, Iran shifts back and forth between stating that it has a right to produce nuclear weapons, and that it will not produce them (at least for the time being) and will cooperate with the UN Atomic Energy Agency. The one major change is that the U.S. has now come into agreement (at least for the moment) with Europeans on the need to settle the Iranian nuclear proliferation problem diplomatically . The United States is now engaged in program of redesigning a new generation of nuclear weapons to replace its aging arsenal, before atomic decay renders them impotent .

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Ehsan Ahrari, writing in Asia Times , January 19, states that Pakistan and Afghanistan may be drawn into the potential conflict with Iran , if Seymour Hersh's information is correct. Both countries are allegedly providing access for American forces to target Iranian nuclear sites. Ahrari considers, however, that the report of this possibility may be a less than subtle way of increasing pressure on Iran to end its nuclear weapons program.

In Iraq , U.S. casualties have surpassed 1,500 dead and 11,000 wounded, with a larger number reported wounded and dead from non-combat causes. (Mark Benjamin noted on WNYC's On the Media , on April 1, that the Pentagon has used a number of ruses to hide the true U.S. casualty figure, which is closer to 25,000.) That does not count the psychological damage and post-traumatic stress that many will experience after returning home, or the difficulties many may encounter reintegrating into normal life. U.S. casualties have been declining in past months, while deaths and injuries among Iraqis have greatly increased as insurgents shifted their focus beginning with the approach of elections (Though there are indications, in early April, that direct attacks on U.S. installations may become a new insurgent focus). Many deadly attacks have been launched against Shiites, apparently intended to provoke counter attacks against Sunnis; but so far the Shi'a have remained restrained, seeing their best prospects in the political realm. Outside of Sunni areas, where participation was extremely low, the Iraqi elections proceeded very well, with an almost 60% overall turnout) despite violent attempts at disruption (only around 44 people killed in a rash of nine car bombs) in January, giving, first, Shiites and, second, Kurds many seats in the assembly. For months, however, the parties were unable to agree on a government and parliamentary leadership, creating a partial political vacuum that aided the insurgents.

Finally, at the beginning of April, the Iraqi parliament reached agreement on its leadership , including a Sunni as Speaker, and can begin functioning. A Kurd was chosen as President, and the major ministers of the government have finally been appointed. There does seem to be an attempt by those in government to reach out to Sunnis, which is expected to include input into the constitution writing process, with the hope of building peaceful relations and undermining the insurgency. Meanwhile, the number of Iraqi police and troops, and the number gaining the training and the will to stand up to insurgents, is increasing, in the face of threats and attacks against government security personnel. The development of a sufficiently large effective Iraqi security force, in a relatively short time, is critical to ending the violence, or at least reducing it to a quite low level. Security, in turn, is the prerequisite for economic development, without which lasting peace cannot be obtained.

Particularly on the peacebuilding side, Dan Baum, writing in the January 10 New Yorker , noted that again, in Iraq, U.S. troops were trained for the wrong war. He notes, however, that junior officers have been using the internet to get around the rigid structure of Pentagon hierarchy to share needed on-the-ground insights.

Baum relates how Lieutenant Colonel Chris Hughes handled a potentially explosive situation:
"The Iraqis were shrieking frantic with rage. From the way the lens was lurching, the cameraman seemed as frightened as the soldiers. This is it, I thought. A shot will come from somewhere, the Americans will open fire, and the world will witness the My Lai massacre of the Iraq war. At that moment, an American officer stepped through the crowd holding his rifle high over his head with the barrel pointed to the ground. Against the backdrop of the seething crowd, it was a striking gesture--almost Biblical. "Take a knee," the officer said, impassive behind surfer sunglasses. The soldiers looked at him as if he were crazy. Then, one after another, swaying in their bulky body armor and gear, they knelt before the boiling crowd and pointed their guns at the ground. The Iraqis fell silent, and their anger subsided. The officer ordered his men to withdraw..."

As Baum notes, Army strategists have begun to pay attention. This writer hopes that they will come to see the need for troops countering insurgency, and/or engaged in peacebuilding, to engage in community policing, as ser forth in these pages in previous issues.

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Speaking at the World Economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, a senior Rand Corporation analyst , and member of a panel reviewing the state of global terrorism , stated that the war in Iraq has become an effective recruiting tool for Islamic militancy, emboldening terrorist attacks elsewhere, and weakening the stability of the region . The head of Human Rights Watch, and a fellow terrorism review panelist, agreed , warning that high profile abuse scandals such as Abu Gharib have become "recruiting posters" for terrorists around the world, and that human rights violations in Iraq are likely to stimulate increased terrorism worldwide . "I believe that a cult of the insurgent has emerged from Iraq." "Our failure there was not to anticipate the repercussions...and the fact that Iraq would become a clarion call for the Islamist cause."

 
The International Crises Group asserted in its March 21 report that. "Iran has the potential to do great mischief in the post-Saddam Iraq, but despite wide-spread allegations, actual evidence of attempts to destabilize the country is rare and evidence of achievement rarer still. Instead, Iran's priority has been to prevent Iraq from re-emerging as a threat to it, which means preventing both outright failure in Baghdad or clear success."

The United Nations Development Program warned that development is key to Afghanistan's survival . Afghanistan ranks 173 of 178 nations in terms of security, welfare and ability for citizens to control their own lives, ahead of only five sub-Saharan African counties. Afghanistan's reemergence is painted as a mixed picture in the report. On the positive side, the economy has been expanding by at least 25% a year, and is expected to grow by 10% annually over the next decade. 4 million children, a record number, are now in school. More than 3 million refugees have returned home, mostly from Pakistan and Iran. On the negative side, the nation still is ranked as having the world's worst education system, 75% of adults are illiterate, and few girls go to school. Of particular importance, most of the country's income is being gained by warlords with strong military and political connections, creating a dangerous economic gap between rich and poor, cities and the countryside, with half of all Afghans being poor. Recently there has been an increase in Taliban attacks against government and NATO forces.

 
UPI Intelligence Correspondent, Richard Sale, reported on January 11 that: "Bush administration hard-liners have been considering launching selected military strikes at insurgent training camps in Syria and border-crossing points used by Islamist guerrillas to enter Iraq in an effort to bolster security for the upcoming elections..." Secretary of Defense denied that the U.S. planned to send "hit squads". A week earlier the U.S. warned Syria against interfering in Lebanon's upcoming elections.

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Stephen Ulf, writing for the Jamestown Foundation, on January 10, noted that al Quaeda seems to be waning in Saudi Arabia : "The latest attempted bombing of the Interior Ministry building and the Special Emergency Forces headquarters training unit at Riyadh on December 29, appears to spell out more evidence of al-Qaeda's decline in the Peninsula. The bombings and related clashes with Islamist militants accounted for a total of 90 injuries and the death of one bystander. The cost to the mujahideen were five killed during the bombings (three of whom from suicide detonations) and a further 10 hunted down in gunfights which preceded and followed them. Three of the assailants were on the list of the 26 'most wanted' Saudi insurgents... A statement from al-Qaeda posted on the al-Ma'sada jihadist website (www.alm2sda.net) named the target of the attacks as the Kingdom's Interior Minister Prince Nayef bin Abdel-Aziz, who was away at the time. The statement also laid emphasis on the killing of 'a number of Crusader trainers killed in the Emergency Forces' headquarters and the wounding of several of those forces,' which contradicts the figures given out by the authorities. The statement ended with what may be a revealing phrase: 'We are determined to re-organize ourselves and prepare for new exemplary operations'." During early April, a number of shootouts occurred between Saudi security forces and suspected al Queada militants, with several people on the government's most wanted terrorist list killed or apprehended. At this juncture, it appears that Saudi Arabia's anti terrorist efforts have gained effectiveness. For the first time, Saudi Arabia held local elections , earlier this year, with only men voting. Meanwhile, al Quaeda related terrorists have begun operating in Kuwait . On January 30 Kuwaiti security forces stormed a building in the Salmiyya residential district of the capital. From the total of arrests and fatalities to date, the cell operating in Kuwait numbered about 30 and, according to official sources, was made up of people of several nationalities. On February 1, an Islamist forum on the web featured a statement addressed to the Kuwaiti government warning of a 'Great War' coming if the U.S. forces did not leave the country

There continue to be hopeful developments in the Palestinian-Israeli situation, mixed with some ongoing troubling policies by the Sharon government . Prime Minister Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) had a cordial and productive meeting, in February. At the Sharm-al-Sheikh conference, however, the resolution of the conflict was not mentioned at all, in discussing returning to the peace process. Abu Mazen succeeded in slipping in some words, but Sharon did not react. This omission is very significant. It must be emphasized: Sharon did not utter a single word that does not conform with his plan of annexing 58% of the West Bank and enclosing the Palestinians in small enclaves in the rest of the territories. Abu Mazen undertook negotiations with Hamas and other groups, gaining an agreement that attacks against Israel would cease. Abu Mazen has been strong in asserting that violent Palestinain attacks are counter productive, but that he will not attempt to suppress militant groups by force. Rather he will work to integrate them into nonviolent political action. Hamas has a strong political base in Gaza, winning at least two-thirds of the local council seats in local elections there, in January. The Palestinian President posted security forces along the Gaza side of the Israeli boarder, with Sharon's approval, to stop mortar attacks into Israel. When the ceasefire was broken by Palestinians, Abu Mazen ordered security forces to find the perpetrators and stop further attacks. While Sharon demanded more effective action of Abu Abas, he did not order Israeli counter attacks. The killing of several Palestinian young people by Israeli forces. later brought retaliatory Palestinian mortar attacks, and then counter Israeli action; but, at this writing, nothing further. Thus, while imperfect, the ceasefire remains mostly in effect, while Israel has withdrawn some forces and turned over administration of some areas to the Palestinian Authority. The Bush Administration has stated its approval of the ceasefire arrangements and of Abu Mazen's actions, sending Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in February, to encourage movement on the 'road map' to peaceful settlement. Bush has said that Israeli settlement expansion must stop. The question is, will he take any action to pressure Sharon on the matter. Currently, a struggle is in progress over control of property in the Jerusalem area. In February, the government abandoned a secret plan to appropriate nearly half the Palestinian property in East Jerusalem on the grounds that the Wall turned the owners in the West Bank into absentee landlords. Now, the focus is on property in the city. On April 7, while the first Qassam rocket in several months landed in the Israeli border town of Sderot, fortunately not causing damage, Israeli and Palestinian mayors, prominent among them the mayor of Sderot, began to dialogue. Otherwise, The Other Israel (http://otherisrael.home.igc.org/) reports this recent week to have been one of contradictions. "After the definite Knesset vote in favor of the Gaza pullout, the now imminent disengagement is "counterbalanced" by a whirlwind of typical Sharon-style anti-peace actions. The reluctantly started IDF (Israeli Defense Force) withdrawal from Palestinian population centers came to a sudden halt, and weird scenes started to appear on our TV screens - of Israeli soldiers attacking unarmed Palestinian police in Hebron. And of course:   more land confiscation & further home demolitions to make place for settlement expansion, wall extension or whatever. In the midst of all this one contradicting scene, also in Hebron: a Palestinian family whose house had been demolished by settlers, was brought back following a Supreme Court decision in their favor, and the IDF built a wall (yes!) to protect them against the settlers, many of whose kids were seen fighting with the soldiers and taken into custody.) For more go to: http://imemc2.thinkhost.net/). Also this week Sharon was reported as having his aides, among them Shimon Peres, tell the Americans that the 3500 houses at the Ma'aleh Adumim settlement are NOT really going to be built. It was only for internal political reasons that it had been said they would, says Sharon in the week before he has to see George W. at the Texas farm. It only leaves one wondering what Sharon is telling the settlers, with whom he started a new rapprochement. Something like" /.Don't listen to what I have to say to the Americans; you know me better!"?\".

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Over the past months, there has been great resistance from most settlers to the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza , though a few settlers early on agreed to compensation for resettlement. A breakthrough was achieved, in early April, when Prime Minister Sharon met with Gaza setter leaders to work out a compromise under which thousands of Gaza settlers would be moved to an area on the Israeli Mediterranean coast, prior to the scheduled withdrawal this summer . Palestinians have been charging for many months that right wing settlers are targeting Arab children on their way to school while western reporters look the other way. There were reports in March of many Palestinian sheep having been poisoned, allegedly by Israeli settlers. Gush Shalom reported in February, that a t the same meeting in which it decided to implement the disengagement from the Gaza Strip, the government took an even more important decision: to complete the wall in the West Bank . In February, preparations were moving rapidly ahead for the building of three new towns between the Green Line and the wall: "Gevaot" in the Etzion Bloc, "Zufim North" near Kalkilia and a contiguous built-up area connecting Jerusalem with Ma'aleh Adumim. More big housing projects were planned east of Har Homa and east of A-Ram. "This means violating the promise given to President Bush, violating international law, sabotaging Abu Mazen's efforts to achieve a settlement and inviting a third intifada. The dismantling of the Gush Katif settlements is costing billions. The dismantling of the West Bank settlements will cost hundreds of billions.   All of us will pay".   The Israeli Supreme Court continues to put some limitations on the building of Israel's security fence . On Jan. 13, the High Court issued a temporary injunction ordering the state "to refrain from all uprooting of trees or orchards and digging, paving, leveling, construction or other preparations for the erecting of the separation fence in the area around the villages of Biddu, Beit Sourik, Beit Iksa, Beit Aanan, Likiya, Katana, Khirbet Abu Lehem, Al-Kubeiba and Nebi Samuel." However, the government is now building new walls, supposedly to protect settler roads that crisscross the West Bank. These will divide Palestinian areas into isolated ghettos . In January, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan took the first step in creating a register for damage claims stemming from the construction of the West Bank separation fence . A UN General Assembly resolution in July demanding that Israel demolish the fence, as the International Court of Justice ordered, also asking Annan to establish a register of damage caused by its construction for possible future claims and legal action. In February, the Israeli military said that it would cease demolishing the houses of the families of suicide bombers and gunmen as punishment, because an internal report indicated that such action was not a deterrent. During the past 3 years, the Israeli Land Authority destroyed crops belonging to Bedouins in the Negev by aerial spraying of herbicides. Following the petition of several organizations to the Supreme Court of Justice, the Land Authority has been ordered to stop using this method. The Land Authority and the 'Green Patrol' shifted, in January, to destroying Bedouin crops in the Negev by plowing them under. Negev Bedouins have now sued the state for massive crop destruction , saying. "The Bedouin are not squatters - government act was totally illegal." They are peaceful farmers, citizens of the state of Israel since it was first established and who had worked their land for many generations before that, who are in possession of all the necessary documents, and who had asserted their ownership of the land in a document submitted to the Ministry of Justice as long as 40 years ago. In late January, in a meeting with U.S. mediation expert Prof. Larry Susskind, Israeli Attorney General Menachem Mazuz gave his approval for a course of mediation between the state and the Bedouin residents of the Negev to solve the land disputes in the Negev and the problem of unrecognized villages . The process is the first of its kind in Israel, The agreement came following the police, the Shin Bet security service and the National Security Council pressuring the government to apply mediation out of concern that violence would erupt among the Bedouin in the Negev if the existing situation continues. Prof. Susskind heads the Consensus Building Institute at Harvard University, which specializes in resolving disputes between minorities and states. The mediation initiative is being funded by several foundations affiliated with the U.S. Jewish community.

 
Current developments are occurring against a background of shifting public opinion among both Palestinians and Israelis. An end of December poll published in Haaretz, January 18, finds that some 54 percent of the Palestinians support a two-state solution on the basis of the 1967 lines , with border corrections and no massive return of refugees, confirming that there has been a change in Palestinian public opinion since the death of Yasser Arafat. A similar poll done in December 2003, showed only 39 percent of the Palestinians supported an agreement with Israel . A parallel poll, conducted in Israel among a representative sample of Jewish and Arab voters, January 9-10, showed that 64% are now in favor of a permanent peace agreement, compared to only 47 percent who supported such a deal in a similar poll last year .

The pollsters presented the people with a series of articles that were reminiscent of the Clinton Framework of 2000 and the Geneva Accord deal of 2003, without naming the source of the particulars. Most of the findings of the joint poll point to a significant rise in the support for reconciliation between the peoples and a peace agreement, since Arafat's replacement by Mahmoud Abbas. Some 63% of the Palestinians support the proposal that after the establishment of the state of Palestine and a solution to all the outstanding issues - including the refugees and Jerusalem - a declaration will be issued recognizing the state of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and the Palestinian state as the state of the Palestinian people.

Some 35% of the Palestinians oppose such a declaration. In June 2003, 52% supported such a proposal, and 46 percent were opposed. Among Israelis, 70% supported the proposal for mutual recognition, and 16% were opposed. In 2003, 65% supported the proposal and 33% were opposed. 63% of the Palestinians said they definitely agreed or agreed with the statement: "The Palestinian state will be established on all of the West Bank and Gaza, except for the large settlement blocs that will be annexed to Israel, though not more than 3%. Israel will evacuate the rest of the settlements, and the Palestinians will get in exchange a piece of territory of the same size contiguous to Gaza." Some 35% said they oppose or definitely oppose such a formula. A similar question posed in December 2003 received 57% support, with 41% opposed. In Israel, that proposal won 55% support, with 43% opposed, compared to 47% in favor it in 2003 and 50% opposed. On the issue of Jerusalem, there has been a toughening of the stand on both sides. Among Palestinians, 44% were in favor and 54% were opposed to an agreement in which "Jerusalem will be the capital of two states.

East Jerusalem will be the capital of Palestine and West Jerusalem the capital of Israel. The Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem, including the neighborhoods in the Old City and the Temple Mount / Haram el Sharif, will be under Palestinian sovereignty. The Jewish neighborhoods, including the Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall, will be under Israeli sovereignty." A similar question posed in 2003 won 46% support and was opposed by 52%. On the Israeli side, 39%were in favor and 60% opposed. In 2003, 41% were in favor and 57%opposed. The poll reveals a major change in the Palestinian position regarding the refugees. According to the principles of the Clinton Framework and the Geneva Accord, the solution to the problem will be based on UN decisions 194 and 242, and include five possibilities from which the refugees can choose: to remain in their current countries; a return to the Palestinian state; a return to the Palestinian state as part of the territorial exchange; emigration to Europe or other countries like Australia and Canada; or a return to Israel, which would be limited and decided on by Israel, with Israel basing its decision on the average number of refugees who emigrate to countries like Australia, Canada and Europe. In addition, all refugees will be eligible for financial compensation from an international fund.

The poll in 2003 showed that only 25% of the Palestinians supported such an arrangement for the refugees, while in the latest poll the proposal now had support from 46 % of the Palestinians, with 50% opposed. Among Israelis, 44% support such an arrangement, compared to 35% last year. 69% of Palestinians support an agreement that includes a declaration of the end of the conflict with Israel, with no further demands to be made by either side of either side. Last year, only 42% of Palestinians supported such a declaration, with 55% opposed.

On the Israeli side, 76% support such a declaration and 23% are opposed, compared to 66% and 33% respectively in 2003. 61% of Palestinians opposed, and 27% support, the following statement: "The state of Palestine in the West Bank and Gaza will not have an army, but will have a strong security force and there will be an multinational force to guarantee the security of both sides. There will be commitments by Israel and Palestine to end terror and violence on both sides."

In December 2003, when it was asked - without the element of the multinational force - 36% were in favor and 63% opposed. 53% of Palestinians supported the following statement: "Israel will be allowed to use the Palestinian air space for practice, but the state of Palestine will be sovereign over its airspace, its land and its sources of water. In addition, two Israeli early warning stations will be established in the West Bank for 15 years, and a multinational force will remain in the Palestinian state and at the borders for an indeterminate period of time. The purpose of the multinational force is to monitor the implementation of the agreement and defend the territorial integrity of the Palestinian state and the border passages, because it will be demilitarized." 45%of Palestinians opposed that. Last year 23% supported this, compared with 67% who were opposed. On the Israeli side, 61% supported this approach while 37% opposed the article's inclusion in any final peace agreement. For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Ayoub Mustafa, at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Dr. Yaacov Shamir at tel. 202-429-3870 or email jshamir@usip.org. Please visit http://www.pcpsr.org/index.html

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A second poll illuminates Palestinian and Israeli Disagreement on how to Proceed with the Peace Process , with 48% of Israelis agreeing on negotiations with the Hamas, if it is necessary and 80% of the Palestinians and Israelis supporting a return to negotiations on a comprehensive settlement. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) and the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace carried out a Joint Israeli-Palestinian Public Opinion Poll between March 8 and 13. The poll was designed to examine the preferences of Palestinians and Israelis on how to proceed with the peace process, their attitudes towards the disengagement plan, and their attitudes towards reconciliation after Arafat's death. In summary, the poll results were as follows.

Despite these preferences, 53% of the Israelis and 51% of the Palestinians say they will support their leadership decision to proceed in the peace process with the approach they prefer less, while 37% of the Israelis and 41% of the Palestinians will not support their leadership decision in such a case. - In the same context, 59% of the Palestinians and 60% of the Israelis support the Quartet's Roadmap plan compared to 35% among Palestinians and 36% among Israelis who oppose it. -   70% of the Israelis and 59% of the Palestinians believe that it is possible to reach a compromise settlement with the other side's current leadership.   27% among Israelis and 41% among Palestinians don't think it is possible. 61% among Israelis and 62% among Palestinians believe their own leadership is strong enough to convince its constituency to accept such an agreement. 65% of the Palestinians but only 38% of the Israelis believe that the other side's leadership is strong enough to convince its public to accept such a compromise. -   48% of the Israelis believe that Israel should negotiate also with the Hamas if it is necessary in order to reach a compromise agreement; 47% oppose it. Among Palestinians, 79% support the participation of the Hamas in the negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel compared to 19% who oppose it.

(2) Assessments of previous peace initiatives. Israelis and Palestinians were further asked to assess the reasons for the Oslo process and the Camp David summit failures. Both sides put the blame on the other side. 63% of the Israelis believe that the main reason for why the Oslo process failed was because the Palestinians were not forthcoming enough and maintained the use of violence, but only 5% of the Palestinian think so. Palestinians (54%) put the blame mainly on Israel not being forthcoming enough and continuing to build settlements. Only 20% of the Israeli public thinks this is the major reason. 10% of Israelis and 33% of Palestinians blame the step-by- step procedure for the failure. -   As to the Camp David summit, 70% of the Israelis but only 5% of the Palestinians believe that it failed because Arafat did not seriously intend to reach a final and comprehensive settlement with Israel. On the other hand, 50% of the Palestinians but only 11% of the Israelis believe it failed because Barak yielded much less than he claimed he did. 13% of Israelis and 36% of Palestinians think the problems were too numerous and the differences too big to be solved all at once.

 ( 3) Sharon's Disengagement Plan and Settlements.  52% of the Israelis support and 44% oppose a referendum on Sharon's disengagement plan. If a referendum on Sharon's disengagement plan were held today, 65% of the Israeli public would support it compared to 29% who would oppose it. 49% among Israelis support the participation of Israeli Arabs in such a referendum, compared to 48% who oppose it. 67% of the Israelis support and 30% oppose the dismantling of most of the settlements in the territories as part of a peace agreement with the Palestinians. 75% of the Palestinians see Sharon's plan to evacuate the Israeli settlements from Gaza as a victory for the Palestinian armed struggle against Israel, while 23% do not see it as such. Among Israelis, 44% see Sharon's plan to evacuate the Israeli settlements from Gaza as a victory for the Palestinian armed struggle against Israel, while 50% don't think it is a Palestinian victory.

30% of the Palestinians and only 9% of the Israelis believe that the Palestinian Authority has high capacity to control matters in the Gaza Strip after Israel's disengagement, 43% of the Palestinians and 34% of the Israelis think it has reasonable capacity and 23% among Palestinians and 51% among Israelis think it has low or no capacity. 36% of the Israelis believe that if Israel disengages fully in the Gaza Strip Palestinian armed attacks against Israeli targets outside the Gaza Strip will decrease, 27% think they will not change and 31% think they will increase. 29% of the Palestinians in turn support and 68% oppose the continuation of armed attacks against Israeli targets from the Gaza Strip after full Israeli disengagement.

(5) Reconciliation. With Arafat's departure from the scene and with the renewed political activity, expectations and support for reconciliation following a comprehensive solution increased in a meaningful 41% of the Israelis expect now full reconciliation to be achieved in the next decade or in the next few years compared to only 32% who thought so in June 2004. 24% of the Palestinians expect full reconciliation to be achieved in the next decade or in the next few years compared to 15% last June. General support for reconciliation among Israelis has also increased and stands now at 84% compared to 80% in June 2004. 81% of the Palestinians support reconciliation today compared to 67% last June. More important however is the consistent across the board increase in support for a list of specific reconciliation steps, varying in the level of commitment they pose to both publics. 55% of the Israelis and 89% of the Palestinians will support open borders to free movement of people and goods after a comprehensive settlement is reached, compared to 44% of the Israelis and 82% of the Palestinians who said so last June. 70% of the Israelis and 73% of the Palestinians support joint economic institutions and ventures compared to 66% and 66% respectively last June. 43% of the Israelis and 40% of the Palestinians will support joint political institutions designed eventually to lead to a confederate system given a comprehensive settlement compared to 35% of the Israelis and 26% of the Palestinians who said so last June. 66% of the Israelis and 42% of the Palestinians support taking legal measures against incitement directed towards the other side compared to 61% of the Israelis and 35% of the Palestinians who said so in June 2004. 51% of the Israelis and 13% of the Palestinians will support adoption of a school curriculum that recognizes the sovereignty of the other state and educates against irredentist aspirations. In June 2004 41% of the Israelis and 4% of the Palestinians thought so. For further details on the Palestinian survey, contact Dr. Khalil Shikaki at tel. 02-2964933, kshikaki@pcpsr.org, or visit the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) at: www.pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Dr. Yaacov Shamir at tel. 202-429-3870, jshamir@usip.org or visit the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at: http://truman.huji.ac.il. The poll results were distributed by the Common Ground News Service.

Ten Palestinian, Jordanian, and Israeli health professionals spent the week of March 6 together in Amman, Jordan learning how to monitor and respond to disease outbreaks, as participants in a salmonella identification workshop held by the Middle East Consortium on Infectious Disease Surveillance (MECIDS). In addition to the training, the scientists agreed on a common method for monitoring salmonella, so that the data they collect about the number and severity of cases can be compared and unusual outbreaks recognized quickly The goals of MECIDS are to improve the ability of nations in the Middle East to respond to disease outbreaks and to build trust. MECIDS is a project of Search for Common Ground, funded by the NTI foundation. All the course participants have roles in the system that MECIDS is building to share data about food-borne disease outbreaks in the region. Since its formation two years ago, MECIDS has had the backing of the Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian health ministries,

With Egypt playing a diplomatic role in Israeli Palestinian negotiations, Egyptian-Israeli relations have improved , as seen by a December prisoner exchange, with Egypt freeing an Israeli convicted of spying and Israel releasing six Egyptian students who had entered Israeli occupied territory and were suspected of plotting attacks.

A team from the Israeli peace group Gush Shalom attended a conference, "Peace in Palestine" of some 500 delegates from 34 countries in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia sponsored by the government , at the end of March. "The government of Malaysia considers the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the continuation of the occupation a phenomenon endangering not only the Middle-East, but the entire world, as it tends to deepen the hostility and suspicion between the United States and the Muslim World. Therefore, Malaysia is going to take a high profile involvement in an effort to end the occupation and the conflict" said Abdullah Badawi, the prime minister of Malaysia, in a conversation with members of the Israeli delegation.
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The assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (who played a major role in the rebuilding of the country after its civil war), seemingly with Syrian involvement, launched a massive popular Lebanese outcry against Syrian troops being stationed in the country, and the crumbling of the pro-Syrian, and Syrian supported, Lebanese government. Under strong international and considerable Lebanese pressure, Syria announced in early April that it would remove all troops and intelligence personnel from Lebanon by he end of the month . That step is important for Lebanese independent development, but with many factions that were engaged in a long civil war prior to the arrival of the Syrian military, peace and stability are not a certainty, and much work will have to be undertaken to insure them. Indeed, there have been a number of bombings in Lebanon since Hariri's murder. The future of Hezbollah, a strong Syrian linked political and military force in the nation, is now uncertain in Lebanon. Many Lebanese hope that it will end its military activity to further its social service and political roles. There is also the question of the impact of withdrawal from Lebanon within Syria. Brian Maher wrote in the Power and Interest News Report , March 28, 2005, that a full withdrawal from Lebanon in the face of Western pressure would represent a serious humiliation for the ossified Ba'athist regime, which might not be able to survive such a display of perceived weakness. Jordan's King Abdullah , apparently concerned that that Israel might retaliate against the wrong party, in late March, warned that Syria and Hizbollah are likely to attack Israel in order to divert attention from the demands that Syria pull out of Lebanon.

The U.N. Development Program's Arab Human Development Report (which the U.S. attempted to block, and delayed for six months), compiled by a group of Arab professionals, released in April, calls for rapid progress toward democracy and freedom in the Arab world. The document contends that the United States and Israel have impeded such progress, which it says is caused, in part, by the structure of modern Arab states that offer somewhat greater personal freedom than previously, but little political freedom. "The Arab development crisis has widened, deepened and grown more complex to a degree that demands the full engagement of all Arab citizens in comprehensive reform." "The freedoms of opinion, expression and organization, in particular suffer from repression in most Arab countries ," preventing the emergence of effective opposition groups and parties. In Egypt . in a pro-democracy rally, the Muslim Brotherhood, some of its supporters holding the Qur'an, demonstrated, for the first time addressing   domestic issues in downtown Cairo, at the end of March to protest the current political stalemate. "The security arrangements turned parts of the capital into an almost citizen-free fortress..."(Omayama Abdel-Latif, Al Ahram Weekly , March 31, 2005).

Direct bus service between the Pakistani and Indian sections of Kashmir is scheduled to begin in April, but is threatened by militants in Indian Kashmir. The two nations are encouraging joint economic development and trade between Indian and Pakistani Kashmir , including the formation of joint Kashmiri business and trade committees.
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The first direct flights between Mainland China and Taiwan , since the Communist regime came to power in Beijing, in 1949, began in late January. At the same time, new legislation signed by China's People's Congress in March gives the government authorization to attack Taiwan if it attempts to unilaterally declare independence. That led the European Union to review plans to lift its arms sales embargo on China within the next few months (opposed by both Japan and the U.S.). While Beijing's claims over Taiwan are the most visible, it is to be noted that China has unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with thirteen of its neighbors . With Chinese economic and military capability growing, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is increasing. The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, March 31, 2005, found that Social and economic changes at home are forcing China to modify its approach to international relations. In the 21st century, Beijing may be forced to depart from the Bandung spirit and the strategies put forward by Deng Xiaoping to "never take the lead" (bu chu tou) and "bide our time, build our capabilities" (taoguang yanghui).

It is becoming clear that China's leaders feel that they must capitalize on strategic opportunities to ensure that national interests are protected...Depending upon one's viewpoint, this is either alarming evidence of China's pending economic "threat" or a natural process stemming from China's economic development and "peaceful rise." The recent acquisition of a part of America's iconic IBM by a Chinese company, Lenovo, has been seen by many as a turning point and a symbol of China's rise and America's decline. The Chinese acquisition of IBM's faltering PC division represents a fundamental in shift the global IT industry, a new division of labor in which the successful players - the United States, China, and India - adopt a more complementary than confrontational approach.

The rise of Lenovo in the international scene also helps to underline Japan and Europe's diminished role, according to Jean-Pierre Lehmann, April1, 2005.   In March, the Export-Import Bank of the United States provided US$ 5 billion to finance the building of Chinese nuclear power plants by US firms in the energy-starved economic giant. Some experts fear that the move could increase nuclear proliferation if China passes on atomic materials to other nations. Internally, China suffers from ethnic tensions that it attempts to suppress . Unrest is rooted in an increasing alienation among people who feel left out of the Chinese government's primary thrust toward economic growth, resulting in increased inequality, autocracy and corruption.

In 2004, at least 60,000 protests took place by ethnic minorities in China, more than 5 times the number that occurred annually a decade ago. In the village of Nanren, in Henan province, 500 Hui Muslims and 1500 Han Chinese engaged in a violent clash on October 28. (For more see Jehangir S. Pocha, "Ethnic Tensions Smolder in China," In These Times , January, 2005) The U.S. decision to sell F-16 fighters to Pakistan , in March, may effect the region. The sale strengthens the position of "pro-U.S". over "pro-China" lobbies within the Pakistani military. India is unhappy, but the U.S. has indicated that it is willing to sell the aircraft to India.

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Survival International reported in March that The Indonesian army and police have killed three people, burned down houses, killed pigs and destroyed crops, in the latest in a series of attacks against tribal villages in the Papuan highlands . Indonesia's new President, former General Bambang Yudhoyono, the nation's first directly elected president, has vowed to end poverty and separatist conflicts. It remains to be seen what this means in practice and what his relations will be with the army, which has been independent and continues to inflict many human rights abuses. The Bush Administration wishes to reinstate military training and arms supplying to Indonesia, under the auspices of the war on terrorism. Human rights groups oppose this, and so far Congress has not removed the ban on military relations with Indonesia.

The government of Iran renewed its persecution of Baha'i, last year , as a cultural cleansing , destroying cultural landmarks and depriving Baha'i young people of education, a shift likely undertaken in the hope that the repression will be less noticed internationally ( One Country , July-September, 2004).

In October, the military rulers of Myanmar (Burma) removed Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, who sought to restore democracy , reportedly placing him under house arrest.

Pramit Mitra, writing in YaleGlobal , March 14, 2005 speculates that India's quest for securing energy could re-shape South Asia's geopolitical landscape and affect India's diplomatic relations , particularly with the U.S.

For the first time, Turkey has permitted the many thousand of its Assyrian citizens to celebrate their New Year publicly . It appears that the Istanbul government hopes that this will make it a more acceptable candidate for entry into the E.U.

 
The Russian killing of Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov is seen by Liz Fuller, in, EurasiaNet , March 8, 2005, as effectively demolishing the hope for a peaceful resolution of the Chechnya conflict . Command of the semiautonomous resistance forces, the various detachments of which are capable of operating independently for months at a time, now devolves to radical field commander Shamil Basaev, the next in seniority and experience after Maskhadov. While Maskhadov sought repeatedly to obtain Russia's consent to negotiate a peace settlement that would guarantee the security of the Chechen people within the Russian Federation, Basaev has made it clear that he has no interest in peaceful coexistence with Russia. But it is likely that others, as yet unknown or little known, will emerge in the months to come to challenge Basaev for that role, or to operate independently of him.

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 The popular peaceful coup d'etats of Georgia and the Ukraine have now been followed by one in Kyrgyzstan . There the uprising is being led by a far less disciplined force, with no widely recognized leader and no clearly defined program. Thus the situation in Kyrgyzstan. is unstable and uncertain . For some days there were two parliaments, of the old and the new politics. After the Parliamentary division was settled, the old President resigned, but the first attempt for the new parliament to act had to be postponed, for lack of a quorum. It may take months or years for political equilibrium to be recreated, and popular anger at the outgoing regime may be difficult to contain. Some analysts believe a recent pardon by Azerbajani President Ilham Aliyev. of opposition activists who were imprisoned in connection with post-election rioting in 2003, in an apparent attempt to show the international community that the Azerbaijani government is interested in reform, may increase the likelihood of a   "democratic revolution" in Azerbaijan ," that is already being called for by some in the opposition.

 C. J. Chivers, writing in The New York Times , January 17, 2005, states that bloodshed was avoided in the Ukraine's contested elections largely because government intelligence commanders , in an informal network of Ukrainian army officers known as the siloviki, told the police and army to stand down . Leonid Polyakov of the U.S. Army War College's Straegic Studies Institute said in December that, "Ukraine's destiny is critical to the security of the entire post-Soviet zone. It long has been the stated goal of Ukrainian defense policy to integrate with Euro-Atlantic structures like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and this goal has been one of the chief objectives of the United States, as well. Ukraine's State Security Service launched an investigation, in February, into the sale of six nuclear capable Kh-55 missles to China, and six to Iran , although export documents recorded the final recipient of some 20 of the missiles as "Russia's Defense Ministry".

Igor Torbakov, writing on Eurasianet , January 18, found the Kremlin's foreign policy course to be at a fork in the road. On the one hand, Russia aspires to join the "Western world." On the other, it retrains the dream of restoring its status as a great power dominating its geopolitical neighborhood. If Moscow does not make a choice, its foreign policy could continue to be filled with contradictions. Most Russian experts agree that the country faces a critical strategy dilemma, yet views strongly diverge on how best to tackle the problem. Liberal commentators hold that in the past year Russia experienced major setbacks on both paths, with the deterioration of its relations with western democracies, while a in its influence within the former Soviet Union declined.

The International Crisis Group warned in its January 24 report that that Kosovar Albanians are getting restless over the slow pace of the movement to finally resolve their future status. The Albanians want independence, and if they don't get some indication of involvement from the international community, they may take action alone , which could trigger a counter action from Serbia, which would be likely to reignite the war .

 
 In Northern Ireland, progress toward moving ahead in the peace process by reforming a government, including Sinn Fein, has been further delayed by credible allegations that IRA members were involved in the fatal shooting of Robert McCartney (a Catholic) in January. The murder, following upon revelations of the IRA undertaking a $50 million bank robbery on December 20, and a March IRA offer to execute four murder suspects, has brought increasing calls for the IRA to disarm and disband, with many in the Catholic community supporting the disbanding.

A campaign by McCartney's sisters, extending to the U.S., for justice for their brother has contributed to pressure on the IRA and to a rise in the number of people in Northern Ireland and abroad who see the IRA as criminals rather than defenders of the rights of Northern Ireland's Catholics.

On April 6, Sinn Fein leader, Jerry Adams, urged IRA fighters to pursue their goals through politics as an alternative to 'armed struggle'. Some observers saw Adam's speech as an attempt to return the IRA to negotiations, which it left in February, and the situation to December, when the IRA offer to disarm, and Protestant demands for photographic evidence of decommissioning, were under negotiation.

'A Shared Future' outlines the scale of the challenge and indicates that good relations will be built on significant progress of the equality agenda. "The objectives outlined in 'A Shared Future' include: the elimination of sectarianism, racism and all forms of prejudice to enable people to live without fear of intimidation or harassment; the reduction of tension at interface areas; the facilitation of the development of a shared community where people wish to live, work, play and learn together; the promotion of civic mindedness via citizenship education through school and life long learning; the protection of members of minorities (whether, for example, by religion, race or any other grounds); and the shaping of policies, practices and institutions to enable trust and good relations to grow".

The policy is to develop on three levels: a triennial action plan covering actions across public authorities to be prepared by the Autumn; the enhancing of the roles and functions of the Community Relations Council; and a new district council Good Relations Challenge Programme, that will be established by 2007 to replace the existing program. ("'A Shared Future' outlines the fundamental principles and aims which underpin how all of us, government, local authorities, civic society, can work together to bring about a shared future between and within communities". A copy of the document and full text of the Written Ministerial Statement can be accessed at : www.asharedfutureni.gov.uk).

The Community Security Trust, which represents Britain's 290,000 person Jewish community on security matters, reported, in February, that attacks on the British Jewish community increased by 42% last year , with 532 "anti-Semitic incidents" - defined as malicious acts toward Jews - in 2004, including a record 83 assaults.)

The Basque separatist movement, ETA , after remaining quiet for several months following the Madrid train bombings by Muslim insurgents, set off small bombs in several Spanish cities, in December, injuring 18 people, on the anniversary of Spain's constitution, which established a system of regional autonomy that ETA rejects as insufficient. Spain undertook its first trial of a person for a crime against humanity committed in another country , in January, proceeding against a former Argentine naval officer who once admitted throwing political opponents to their death from an airplane.

In January, the European Parliament endorsed the European Union's first constitution , which will go into effect in 2007, if unanimously ratified by the EU's 25 member nations.

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Since December, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has been pointing out that the UN's approach to the Darfur region of Sudan has not been working, with the Sudanese government continuing to participate in deadly ethnic cleansing attacks against Sudanese of African origin continuing to worsen a developing genocide, and a deteriorating humanitarian crisis . More recently, a the UN passed a resolution calling for a peace keeping force of several thousand, predominantly from the African Union Peace and Security Council, both to end the ethnic cleansing and bring security to Darfur, and to enforce the peace treaty, signed in Kenya, in January, between the government in Khartoum (in the North) and the People's Liberation Army (in the south ), ending a 20 year civil war. However, little has happened to actually build a peace force any where near the size authorized.

The International Crisis Group reported, on March 31 that Mali, Niger, Chad and Mauritania, are increasingly referred to by the U.S. military as "the new front in the war on terrorism ". The group assessed that there are enough indications, from a security perspective, to justify caution and greater Western involvement in the area. However, the Sahel is not a hotbed of terrorist activity. A misconceived and heavy handed approach could tip the scale the wrong way; serious, balanced, and long-term engagement with the four countries should keep the region peaceful. An effective counter-terrorism policy there needs to address the threat in the broadest terms, with more development than military aid and greater U.S.-European collaboration. A commission on Africa led by British Prime Minister Tony Blair is calling for wealthy nations to double their aid to the continent and on African nations to root out pervasive corruption . Blair stated that the impoverishment of Africa and the needless deaths of millions of children there each year present "the fundamental moral challenge of our time."

In November, a French air strike destroyed the Ivory Coast air force, following the death of 9 French soldiers who were part of a peacekeeping force . Ivory Coast's president Laurent Bagbo, who long suspected the French of aiding opposition rebels, then pleaded with the French to remove their tanks from Abidjan. In the follow up, the French moved cautiously to avoid being drawn into a colonial like conflict, and the situation eventually quieted. In early April, a peace agreement was signed to end the fighting which has taken place sporadically since 2002 between the government of the Ivory cost, controlling the wealthier mostly Christian south of the nation, and rebels in the largely Muslim North. Militias on both sides are to disarm and elections are called for October.

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Western observers have stated that Zimbabwe's March parliamentary elections, that gave President Mugabe's party better than a two-thirds majority, suffered from massive electoral fraud. (Some African commentators have spoken more favorably of the voting). One indication of the fraud is that in several districts final vote tallies significantly exceed the number of ballots cast.

Former President Jimmy Carter , in a late January speech to the Organization of American States, stressed that the broad poverty in Latin America could lead to serious unrest. Latin America and the Caribbean have the world's largest income disparity, with 225 million people living below the poverty line. He stated that governments and the privileged must demonstrate the will to provide society's benefits to all citizens if radical uprisings are to be avoided . Argentina , having moved away from economically devastating neoliberal policies under the Presidency of left of center Kirchner, achieved 8% economic growth last year and the government is running a budget surplus . The International Monetary Fund (IMF) insists that Argentina use the surplus to pay off some of its international debt. But Kirchner is resisting doing so, emphasizing the need to use the funding to help Argentineans emerge from the continuing economic crisis.

The International Crises Group stated in its January 27 report that drugs finance the left-wing insurgent Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the far-right United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) to a large degree, and thus are an integral part of Colombia 's conflict. But while the state must confront drug trafficking forcefully, President Alvaro Uribe's claim, that the conflict pits a democracy against merely "narco-terrorists" who must be met by all-out war, does not do justice to the complexity of the decades-old struggle.

Fighting drugs and drug trafficking is a necessary but not sufficient condition for moving Colombia toward peace , according to the ICG. The view that anti-drug and anti-insurgency policies are indistinguishable reduces the chances either will succeed and hinders the search for a sustainable peace. Ana Carraigan, in "War and hope in Columbia," In These Times , January 3, 2005, passes on that despite the U.S. spending $4 billion on eradicating drugs, and, since 2002, jointly on counter terrorism, the price of cocaine has actually gone down 31% on U.S, streets, since the operation's inception (according to the Rand corporation) showing no positive results from Plan Columbia, while the negative impact on people, crops and the water supply in areas sprayed with pesticide has been considerable. The Columbian governments counter attack against FARC has forced the guerillas out of many towns, but not a single insurgent leader has been captured, nor is there any indication of a drop in insurgent moral or increased willingness to negotiate a settlement.

Meanwhile, the poor living in the embattled areas are caught in the crossfire, suspected by both sides of collaborating with the enemy, and becoming poorer in the harsh conditions. Opponents of the war, human rights defenders, union leaders and indigenous leaders have "disappeared", been killed or accused by one of the governments one million paid informants, and then swept up in mass arrests that the Inspector General says detained 125,000 people in the first six months of last year. It was reported in February that the demobilization, disarmament and reintegration (DDR) process of soldiers fighting for Colombia's paramilitary forces succeeded in persuading 2,624 militia members to agree to turn in their weapons , subject themselves to judicial scrutiny, and enter job-training programs designed to reintegrate them into normal civilian life, in 2004.

Survival International reports that Indians in Brazil are holding sit-in protests this month , which on April 19 includes Brazil's 'Day of the Indian', outside the country's 'Ministries Esplanade' over the Lula government's 'appalling record on indigenous rights' .

On April is, but the 430,000 Indians in Brazil feel they have little to celebrate. Lula's 2002 election promises, included a 'special, emergency program to officially recognize the territory of many of the nation's 430 indigenous people. This policy was widely welcomed by native peoples. However, with almost no action to move on this matter, little over fifty percent of indigenous land has been fully ratified.

The Guarani Kaiowá Indians have been fighting for decades to win their land back from powerful landowners. Many Guarani Kaoiwá children suffer from malnutrition. Latest press reports say twenty-two children have died from starvation in 2005, but people working with the Guarani say this figure is likely to be even higher. Over one percent of Guarani Kaiowá Indians, most of them young, have committed suicide. This is one of the highest suicide rates in the world. Lula's government promised to end the impunity of those committing crimes against indigenous peoples. However in the last three decades at least 12 Makuxi Indians have been murdered by hitmen employed by ranchers, and nobody is serving a sentence for these crimes. For more information, visit http://www.survival-international.org.

Former Acapulco Mayor Zeferino Torreblanca, a leftist, won the race for Governor in Mexico's Guero state, in February, ending 76 years of PRI rule in the province . The Mayor of Mexico City, the leading candidate for President in recent polls, has been charged with a minor crime. If he is arrested, it would prevent him from running . Many commentators see the charges as an entirely political move to keep the progressive candidate from running. His policies, including calling for a renegotiation of NAFTA to make it beneficial to the average Mexican, are strongly opposed by many of Mexico's wealthy business leaders

Michael Weinstein wrote in, Power and Interest Report , April 4   (as stated by Global Beat ), that with power passing to the State Department, Washington has awakened to threats to its perceived interests around the world that had been festering since the Iraq intervention diverted attention from them. Despite the fact that Iraq continues to be an obstacle to fresh initiatives, Washington has decided to move to restore its global influence, including in South America, where left and center-left governments have taken control in the southern cone and a cycle of political instability has taken hold in the Andes. Washington sees Chavez to be its greatest problem in South America , because he is the most radically leftist regional leader and the only one offering a clearly alternative and opposed model to Washington's scenario of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (F.T.A.A.) composed of market democracies led by the United States.

At the same time that Washington has become more assertive, Chavez has sensed an opportunity to implement his vision of a united South America that acts in accordance with its own interests, independent of Washington, and a "new socialist society" based on cooperatives that would eliminate poverty and subordinate private business to broader social aims. Elements of Cavezplan are land reform and channeling oil profits to poor people. Although the "Bolivarian" vision is utopian -- and Chavez knows it -- it provides a framework for more practicable policies that put him on a collision course with Washington.

The tensions between Washington and Caracas reflect Chavez's judgment that the hemispheric balance of power has shifted against the United States and that Washington is not in a position to stop him from acting against its wishes. Since it is not clear that Chavez is correct, the conflict between Caracas and Washington has become a test of their relative influence in South America. Chavez was the leading speaker in protest of neoliberal globalization policies at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland in January. In mid April, CAFTA, the Central American Free Trade Agreement, came up for consideration by the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee . Because of "fast track," if either committee decides to send the trade pact to the floor, there could be a yes or no vote within 15 days.

Doctors Without Borders released their annual list, in January, of the ten most underreported humanitarian crises . In Northern Uganda, attacks on civilians by antigovernment forces have resulted in the abduction of thousands of children , many forced into combat or sexual slavery. In the Democratic Republic of Congo , more than 3 million people have died in a decade of fighting . In rural Columbia , civilians are caught in a more than three decade old civil war between the government and insurgents.

About eight million people a year develop active tuberculosis , which has become the most common opportunistic disease for people with HIV/AIDS . 14 years of civil war, disasters and the disintegration of health care plague Somalia . Forced relocation of people to unsafe areas in and around Chechnya in the course of the civil war. A costly healthcare system in Burndi excludes those who cannot pay .

North Korea's hunger crises has reached the point that most people cannot afford basic food items . Ethiopia suffers from chronic food shortages from droughts and lack of farm land. In Liberia many people have been displaced by a 15 year civil war .

UNICEF said, in December, that "too many governments are making informed, deliberate choices that hurt children" , and governments are failing to adequately protect children, with more than 1 billion living in severe hunger .

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The G-7 nations , in February, decided to forgive poor countries debt by up to 100%, on a case by case basis, but would require countries wishing forgiveness to show how the money would be used to reduce poverty. A proposal by Britain to increase international aid by $50 billion annually did not receive approval.

 In January, the Paris club of wealthy nations announced that they would allow Tsunami devastated nations to delay repayment of debt for up to a year , to speed recovery. In many places significant recovery has been taking place. The UN reported, in late January, that disaster aid camps have been rapidly shrinking as post-tsunami development proceeds. One long term ill effect of the Tsunami on Somalia's coast is that there has been a serious outbreak of illness from toxic and radio active waste broken loose from its containers, dumped in the ocean . Observers say that warlords were paid to allow the dangerous dumping .

At the end of March, Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that oil prices may stay above $50 per barrel for several years , following which oil prices increased sharply. On April 4th, light crude hit $58 for the first time ever. OPEC has responded by stating that it was prepared to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) if prices stay high. But according to experts, the market is so tight that this may have little impact, as evidenced by the very slight pause in oil price rise following OPEC's last 500,000 bpd production increase, on March 16th.

Crude oil prices moderated slightly in early April, but with Chinese and Indian energy demand rising faster than new oil production can come online, and with limits as to how much new oil can be found, swiftly increasing energy conservation while developing alternative energy, appear critical if the world is to avoid an economic crisis . Jehanigir Pocha, in "The Axis of Oil," In These Times , February 28, 2005, states, "

China and India are locked into an increasingly aggressive wrangle with the United States over the world's most critical economic commodity: oil . More than any other issue, this tassel will shape the economic, environmental and geopolitical future of these countries and the world. Ensuring a cheap flow of oil has always been one of the central goals of U.S. foreign and economic policy, and Washington's preeminent position in the world is based in large measure on its ability to do this. But China and India are increasingly competing with the U.S. to secure oil exploration rights in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Latin America ."

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Global Warming is occurring more quickly than previously believed , by most scientists. Though 2003 was the hottest summer in British history, with a sweltering heat wave, that killed 15,000 people, a study by a British climate research group, released in December, suggests that, in a few decades, the summer of 2003 might be cool compared to the temperatures that are likely to occur. The report notes: "

 While climate is expected to change gradually over the course of the century, there are some components of the climate system which could change abruptly. There are also concerns that some processes may have a trigger point which, once exceeded, will make the changes inevitable, no matter how much we reduce the emissions subsequently."

These conclusions are echoed by other environmental scientists who have studied evidence of previous climate changes, which have often been rapid once certain thresholds were passed . Indeed, a study from Britain, released in January, suggests that Global warming may become twice as catastrophic as previously thought .

Flooding settlements on the British coast and turning the interior into an unrecognizable tropical landscape, are just some of the likely after effects, the world's biggest study of climate change shows.

The four year Arctic Climate Impact Assessment , released in November, finds that climatic changes resulting from human action are occurring particularly intensely in the Arctic region, including thinning sea ice by 8% in the last 30 years, wide spread melting of glaciers and rising temperatures in permafrost areas, with considerable melting of permafrost .

Projections are that oceans will rise an additional four inches to three feet in the next century . NASA reported that the 30 year rise in the Earths temperature, largely from human caused increase of green house gasses, is continuing, with 2004 the fourth warmest year on record . Current El Nino conditions in the Pacific are projected to make 2005 at least the second warmest year.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration continues to downplay the importance global warming. On December 18, without the participation of the U.S., the UN supported Conference on Climate Change took place in Argentina, adopting a package of measures to assist nations in preparing for climate change. The Kyoto Treaty on Global warming went into effect in February without the participation of the U.S.

 
 MEA , March 30, stated that, " Approximately 60 percent of the ecosystem services that support life on Earth - such as fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water regulation, and the regulation of regional climate, natural hazards and pests - are being degraded or used unsustainably . Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years.

Any progress achieved in addressing the goals of poverty and hunger eradication, improved health, and environmental protection is unlikely to be sustained if most of the ecosystem services on which humanity relies continue to be degraded ."   While several thousand delegates are attended the annual 2-week U.N. conference on climate change in Buenos Aires, in December, the Bush administration did not participate, continuing to argue that global warming is not a serious danger, at least not quite yet, despite very broad international scientific consensus to the contrary. A federal study of the impact of air pollution, released in February, showed that air pollution from traffic and power plants appears to cause genetic changes in fetuses and increase the risk of cancer . A CDC study made public in February showed that fine particles in the same pollution are linked to lower birth weight in babies .

Charles Lewis of the Center for Public Integrity stated on February 3rd, " In the world's oldest democracy, pressure on investigative journalists is usually exerted in sophisticated, non-lethal ways, under the public radar. Every day in Washington, D.C., thousands of government and corporate public relations flaks and lobbyists purvey their 'talking points' with a friendly smile, no matter how odious the client, no matter how intellectually dishonest or morally dubious their message. Journalists must trudge through the shameless 'spin'-that vanilla word admiringly used these days instead of 'lying,' which has a harshly judgmental, jarringly rude ring in Washington power circles. Sometimes the persuasion becomes less subtle. For example, when the Center for Public Integrity obtained, and prepared to publish online, the secret, proposed draft sequel to the USA Patriot Act, known as 'Patriot II,' we got calls from the U.S. Justice Department beseeching us not to publish..." The current problem of reduced transparency in the U.S. is not only that of subtle pressure on investigative journalists. The scientific community has stated its alarm at this administration's repressing of scientific data and direct misstatement of information, as well as official assertions contrary to known facts .

The FBI announced in December that violent crime in the U.S. in the first six months of 2004 was down 2% over the same period of 2003, and homicide was down 6%. Property crime also declined by 2%. In 2003 violent law breaking declined 3%, but homicides were up for the fourth year in a row, by 1.7% over the previous year.

The winter 2004 Issue of the SPLC Intelligence Report states that as Georgia has had an increase in its Latino population of over a half million in the last decade, hate crimes against Hispanics have increased , particularly in the northern half of the state where there are concentrations of white supremacist, neo-Nazi and Southern Heritage groups. The wealth gap in the U.S between white and black and Hispanic families grew from 1996 to 2002 . White family median worth rose 17.4% while Latino family wealth rose 14%, and that of blacks declined 16.1%.

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